Bubbler86

Icon snow panel...actually not that far off from other models as this includes tonight.  Icon is just cold for the wet part of the storm as it transfers/drives the low into S VA.

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

I just looked and actually that panel at 09Z is the coldest it gets.  12Z comes back up a few degrees.

The previous panel is colder in some locales

4 minutes ago, daxx said:

If you can show Tuesday morning. Kind of crazy.

TT does not have all the panels yet but this should suffice for shock.

Extreme Surface Temps Monday Morning (Icon)

3 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea it just will not fold.

Every person needs a place to hang their hat and that is our place today. 

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

cashtown and bubbler should be seeing some flakes fly pretty soon by looks of radar.  I'm hoping by 5:00 for me.

I think they will fly right away as well....32 with a DP of 27.  Just a bit west of me still. 

The Icon is still going to be our Icon at 18Z.  Snow maps should be fun to look at. 

I think it is extremely uncomfortable to go out in rain or sleet so in this case, especially since it is the weekend, I will try to time when the dry slot comes through but before the hounds of winter come rolling in to lock in whatever is still on the driveway.  I have to do about 1/8" of a mile with a shovel.  LOL.  I refuse to get a blower.

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I would giggle my Arse off were that to verify. 

18Z Nam did not budge in phasing this thing but keeps ground temps close to freezing through much of it so Ice.  But it eventually does the transfer so there is still a chance it is doing it to late. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

He's been calling for a "few inches" of snow locally all week and still is. He has lowered his expected temperatures however, and is hitting ice pretty good. 

And by waffling I did not mean disrespect so I should say softening. 

Is Horst waffling to a colder scenario?  

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I see unfortunately absolutely nothing keeping it from lifting further north.

Less phasing...

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

There's that progressive bias! 

One could argue that it is less progressive.  12-24 hours behind the GFS.  But I was posting for the fun of it since this has been a week of model hounding. 

The 12Z NAVGEM holds back the southern vort, less or no phase, and slides it off the SC coast.   Congrats Charlotte!  LOL. 

1 minute ago, JTrout said:

I am not familiar with him, when was he active in the weather game or is he still? I like Bernie because he is a PA native and doesn't typically look at surface maps when he does his analysis, just the upper air maps.  I always walk away feeling like I understand a little bit. haha

Cannot not talk about Accuweather without throwing Elliot Abrams some air time.  He is from Philly. Though, I cannot tell you how often, in the 90's mainly, it would start snowing in Philly and he would crush my hopes by getting on KYW and pointing out how warm it was in NC and that was what was coming our way.  

3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Thanks, bubbler!  Even that still doesn't look totally horrible.  But yes, certainly a pretty good shift north.

Sure and for me it is all about the trends especially this close in so trend wise it is not looking so good.  

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Can anyone with access post a Euro snow map?  Just curious to see the changes.

2 minutes ago, JTrout said:

Lancaster country has ten snowfall contours running through it. 1-6 inch spread on the Euro. Not feeling good for the LSV. Overall the Europeans kept us in the game for 0z though.....barely. 

There is a chance today's snow will be the only snow we see as to stuff that accumulates.  Unfortunate. Tracking is fun but the letdowns suck. 

I suspect the Euro is going to show very little snow for the LSV.  2-4" type west of Susq. and 0-2 East.  Euro followed the days trend.  

4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Have not seen any UKMET snowfall maps but the path of the low was similar to the 0Z Euro.  If today's Euro somehow holds ground it would be good to see what the UK really put down and it is is totally rain or has a front end thump. .

Just showed up on MA.  Surely some sleet in there but hug away.

Have not seen any UKMET snowfall maps but the path of the low was similar to the 0Z Euro.  If today's Euro somehow holds ground it would be good to see what the UK really put down and it is is totally rain or has a front end thump. .

Latest HRRR snowfall totals for tonight.

4 minutes ago, JTrout said:

So maybe because it's so weak of a signal, no real weight should be put on the whole "follow that L, the weekend storm will follow"?  I was on that train early this week too, but the discussion was also to watch it's strength, a stronger thurs night storm south, would be a good sign. 

What we really need is a high pressure to magically appear in South Eastern Canada and make the next Low decide to lateral the ball off to the South and East coast instead of bumping bellies with the high. 

7 minutes ago, JTrout said:

Can anyone more experienced, smarter, etc tell me where this evenings little storm is going to be centered as it passes by. I can't really tell.  I would like to go back to the theory of atmospheric memory, if this is passing to the south of PA, our weekend storm will pass to the south. We talked about it earlier this week. Just wondering if it is still a meaningful thought? I was reading Cranky, he was talking about it earlier this week, then it was brought up here. Just trying to have some hope not based from the modeling of the current situation on the 12z runs. If the L is not to our south tonight....please don't respond, it will just depress me further. 

 

It is so weak it basically washes out but 700MB maps show it going south of us through southern VA and eventually "re-energizing", if you can call it that, when it gets into the Atlantic. 

1 minute ago, canderson said:

So it's going to rain all day Sunday, then be 4 f'n degrees Monday and Tuesday, then rain again Thursday and Friday.

We're living the dream. 

Seems to me that this is a Saturday and Saturday night event with the faster depictions.   A little left over rain or snow flakes as the cold comes in Sunday AM.