Bubbler86
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Posts posted by Bubbler86
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12Z Nam is all snow for Thursday night. 1-3" generally for most both LSV and other areas in Central and Eastern PA. Jackpots Central VA with 4-5". The one positive thing is the SLP and boundary location, as NUT has been speaking, is set more south than the GFS. Its not much of a Low but it does go off Southern VA coast.
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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:
Sunday
fixed. If models are correct, thats time to bail water
hehe
That was weird...we both thought of that. Ha.
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11 minutes ago, sauss06 said:
Yep and i'm not bailing until Saturday morning.
And if you have to bail Saturday AM some near streams might have to bail again Sunday AM after all the rain.
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10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:
Listen, you can't see a Low cross over Frankfort and expect snow. You just can't.
Not sure anyone would debate that, though if you have a block or TPV close by a storm could go fairly parallel east and still slip under us, but some earlier model depictions had the LP farther south than KY so something to keep watching if model watching is an interesting sport to someone.
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11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:
Wow. Cant say i expected that from the Ukie. What does the Euro show?
I do not have Stormvista access so just limited 24 hour weenie panels but the 500MB and this 850 panels do not look great for ALL snow.
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1 minute ago, pawatch said:
What time frame is that?
Missed that in my snip, apologies. That was an old run but here is the new one with a similar look for Saturday night.
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I think the American models look less than optimistic for the two upcoming events so I wanted the forum to have something to hug. That looks like a 20 spot for Carlisle, Canderson and Sauss (storms combined).
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GFS says "Not so fast PA/NY line for first part of weekend storm. Still gives 2-4 Thur night and somewhere in the 4-8" range on a front thump for Saturday before the warm comes rushing in.
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13 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:
You people need to slow down.
This will slow us all down. Keep the airplanes down as well.
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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:
wow, thats crazy, and while part of me wants you to see it again, I like orange juice... :).
North Central Florida went through a time of seemingly yearly extreme freezes (Temps between 10 and 15 degrees) in the 70's and 80's and the 1993 Storm of the Century that caused them to move most of the real producing Orange Groves toward Orlando and south so it is rare that oranges are actually damaged any more despite news reports of it. BUT those Euro weekly forecasts might change that. :-)
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Just now, pasnownut said:
540's to central florida right after. Trough is headed for Cuba....
needless to say, whatever we can get in the next couple events, wont be going anywhere if that look holds.
I am in Florida about one week per month. We saw about a 1/4" of snow in Ocala Circa 2010 (pic attached) and I think this February is going to be their best chance of seeing it again. Tampa and some of the Eastern Space Coast see Ocean Effect flurries all the time but I am referring to actual synoptic snow. This is a bit off topic but it is not during an active storm so...
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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:
That storm is just a beaut. I mighta ran that loop a couple times just to see how perty she is. Fits the period that has been touted as "go time" for us.
...and it brings frozen precip down to the Florida border if not into it. A real classic storm. A bit of a fast mover so totals are not epic.
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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:
Something to be reminded of. Thurs/Fri has a rather similar track to what just happened in the MA over the weekend. While no coastal pops to give a double whammy, track IMO is subject to southerly adjustment. Especially if one believes in the atmospheric memory voodo. Watch the evolution in the next couple runs and we'll see if this has any merit.
To add on to this thought, models often over estimate 2M temps when there is snow cover involved. So IF we can get Thursday night to stay all powder it is going to take an incredible surge on Saturday night for the surface temps to break freezing. It can happen but snow cover will help any CAD stand its ground longer.
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264 for the score. Classic Gorilla in the Gulf.
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1 minute ago, daxx said:
Trust me there is a good amount of rain on this run. The backside is giving you those numbers. Take the backside out and it's not close to that.
Quick eyeballing it would suggest 1-2" of just plain rain.
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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:
Not before depositing 2" of snow to MDT.
No doubt just a bit surprised to see the mix line getting that far north. Come Friday morning, just taking the GFS verbatim, it would just be a wet drive in the mid to upper 30's. For some reason I thought this first system was a slam dunk for us but apparently not so.
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10 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:
18Z ICON is colder on storm#1 vs. 12Z. This morning it showed the precip changing over to non-frozen before ending Friday morning (over LSV). 18Z now keeps LSV totally snow start to finish.
18Z GFS is a clear changeover to rain for Thursday night. Gets mixed back up to State College which is a surprise.
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1 minute ago, daxx said:
18z gfs is some snow to ice then to a lot of rain for lsv. It has trailing energy which gives us snow on backside. We all know how that goes. Overall a more amped run than 12z.
We are trending the wrong way right now. The players are not on the US map yet so still up in the air.
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Here are 850's from the EPS. Williamsport and their OKC fans might even have issue with that but check out the second panel, with its pretty purples, after the front. In defense of winter weather, panel 120 does show a CAD signature but
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Just now, pasnownut said:
Yeah, that works. One good thing is when we flip to ice we often dont lose too much, especially when we flip back to snow. Typically hold cold enough at the surface for us. With that said, I'll sign up for it verbatim and let all my northern peeps do snow angels while we ice skate :).
This was a lot of ice though...if FRZA it is not something I want part of! Over 1".
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Maps I saw posted in the MA forum show a lot of ice for the LSV after the front end 8-12" snow dump.
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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:
Crap...
Get out the generators!
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2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:
has anyone seen the news at noon? I've had 2 people tell that 21 and 27 both said 30" storm this weekend. I don't believe that either station said that.
I mentioned as such this morning. This storm has a great potential to underwhelm even if a foot fell. John Q Public is expecting the next week off work and school.
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1 minute ago, daxx said:
Well that is not good for snow. That high is much too far west as has been stated.
Central PA - Winter 2018-19
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
I think I read somewhere that the Icon is partially funded by area milk and bread companies.