Bubbler86

35 minutes ago, BigBen89 said:

ICON was horrible for SWPA. Absolutely horrible.

GFS actually shows rain for Thursday night in SW PA now...and parts of the LSV.  Was not expecting that. 12Z is taking back some of our positive trends from last night.    It has gone back into a phasing scenario, not as extreme as yesterday 12Z but not good for us, and we get a warm rain washing away any front end dump.  Into the 40's for LSV. 

Personally I am going to hope the Icon is not our final solution.  Driving rain with temps 32-35.  540 line is up near NY.  Weekend front end "thump" would only be a maybe 4, 5 inches for LSV.  

Just now, daxx said:

I'm sure you will take the 12z icon. Snow, ice and some rain.North and west pounded!

Verbatim I guess but it is phasing back in the Midwest so it eliminates the chances of a little or no phase system early in that run.  Also does a retrograde or transfer vs. drive up into NY like yesterday's GFS.  A solution like this, on game day, will make for a very hard forecast.    

I think we are going to need some fancy stuff to happen with the Icon as well as it is north of Texas with the SLP at 60.

The Nams final result (up to 84) is not bad for us but how it got there seems to be questionable...it almost retrogrades the SLP.

The NAM is driving the weekend system a bit further North and West unfortunately.  Lots of people say to not take the NAM seriously beyond 48 but last evening it was one of the first to show a less phased system and it has backed off that thought. 

12Z Nam is still game for a 6 hour snowfall tomorrow evening, starting 6-9PMish, and dropping 1-3". 

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't have one last winter, but that was kind of my point. I'm being a little too soft on that designation. 

It makes a good precursor to talk of climate change (but not right now) and how HECs from our childhood are becoming more of a MECs at this point. 

After typing the HECS/MECS statement I was surprised I did not get scolded even for that.  Everyone has their own version of what a HECS is.  To me anything above 15" is a HEC's and anything above 10" is a MEC's. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

For SOME of the LSV...as is, that maps depicts 4"-8" down my way. That's SECS in my book for us Lanco peeps. 

I fixed it right after I typed it.  

10 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Euro snow totals. Monday is going to be cold. 11-14 for the high.

Borderline Hec's or top of the line MEC's for Northern and Western LSV.  Uncanny how the storms always know where I81/I78 is as to contour lines. 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Morning.  6z's so far....

GFS - ticked back NW

Fv3 - looking better and slightly SE

Icon - ticked back SE and has LP traversing MD line but still trouble as 850's too warm.

summary...looks like last nights better looks may have legs.

 I'm feeling good to start the day.

 

6Z NAM is going to give us snow as well.  I am not a big extrapolating person but it is unphased/south enough that at the worst it is going to be similar to GFS as to the first waves trajectory.  The snownista's are liking the trends. 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Based on the overnight model runs, he won't change a thing. He has not and will not change thoughts and/or forecasts because models suddenly depicted a different solution. As he says often it's meteorology and not modelology. 

He WILL change his forecast if he sees that the atmospheric setup and the players on the field has changed. 

I feel like I should speak for him since I'm the one who always posts his thoughts.

BTW - I hope you all do realize that I hope he's wrong...

I think he will change his thought is he decides the phased solution is losing momentum.  If a piece of energy holds back in the South Central US and becomes the focus we are going to get at least a plowable front end dump and could stay below freezing the whole event.  Like usual a complete gamut of possibilities. At least, meteorological wise, there is a way we can still get a lot of snow. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Sub-500 HEIGHTS over us...incredibly rare.  That would translate to thicknesses below 480 which easily would rival Jan 1994 cold.  Daytime highs would remain below zero in our area if that depiction were to come true.  Unbelievable.

Yea, no snow in that pattern but newsy worthy weather.  Worry about the homeless both humans and animals.

Santa comes to pay a visit for the North Pole end of January.

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Tbh you guys like it much more than most and only like 3 of us live outside of scpa so I'm okay with it...maybe not 2001kx though.

I think you would both be 8-12" just using the GFS verbatim.  I do feel remorse when enthusiastically posting something which might not be good for others.    I sometimes forget this is not an LSV forum.  The GFS change is astounding whether it is stay worthy or not.  I could not fathom it moving this far from its afternoon run into Erie. 

I am headed out soon my self but here is the snow map out to early next week.  It includes Thursday snow, front and back end weekend snow.  Good to see N Maryland getting into the 6-8" game.

Just now, pasnownut said:

Yeah man, but hey, go look like i suggested, the move helps his region as well, and gets him closer to the goods.  One step at a time.

I knew your goodnight was not really a goodnight!  :-)  

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

 

Watch it turn into a strung out mess lol... weather always keeps us guessing it's why we love it.

To me a strung out mess or even nothing is better than 1-2" of rain in the middle of January.    I would rather it snow or be nice so I can enjoy the weekend.  :-) 

One thing I do not like about the GFS is our friend from Pitt who was just posting bit ago....he needs that first wave to minor out a bit earlier to get him snows and he is so right in that Pitt keeps getting screwed. 

5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Are you referring to the first wave as the Thursday night system or what was to be 2 waves within the weekend storm?

The first wave of the two wave weekend system.  The GFS (and CMC earlier) both drive it up to about our latitude before the second piece of energy, trailing behind, takes lead man and heights crash probably never allowing us to get above freezing (in the LSV).

Note the LP in Alabama and the now weaker LP up near Pitt.  

EDIT-And is that a Blue H sitting up in Eastern Canada while all of this takes place?  :-)

Just now, pasnownut said:

I guess we take it in the front or back....wherever we can get it.....

Is the GFS continues to evolve (like the CMC did earlier) to the first wave basically dying out, we are game on.  

Just now, daxx said:

Much better front end!

Is it going to allow that first wave to cede to the second one? 

I think the uptick from tonight (and GFS does look much more interesting regardless) is that the NAM has given is the path to snow.  I like having the Nam be the odd one out that is the long shot for a win. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

It b stuck

It has to finish reading the MA Long Range thread to figure out its next move.