Bubbler86

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS = sorry. You can look at Canada and it is writing on the wall. 

GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression.  All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements.  Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual.

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I don’t get why the ICON has all of a sudden become en vague.

Hell what’s the JMA showing

It has gone from en vague to en vogue.  The jma was good for even the MA.

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

that's not bad though. 

Yea I was speaking for Pitt specifically.  

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Any maps?

Not what you wanted to see unfortunately

Icon really lays down the snow in the first thump.  Does change it over to sleet and freezing rains for much of LSV after a lot of snow.

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Question is...how much of that is taint? 

Not much north of the turnpike...some south but still a crippling hit considering the cold afterwards.  Majority of eastern 2/3 of PA is hit with over a foot....S/E Lancaster and back a little less.

This is not the end of it either

This is going to cause an "uptick" in forum activity.  Cannot believe Nut is not here yet. 

Snow map is going to be feet+

We are going to be nam'd.   Going back to a similar scenario as 0Z last night. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Are you referring to the batch on radar out in western pa right now?  Was tonight's event supposed to be broken up into 2 pieces?  Sounds like that's what you were/are expecting.

Is is supposed to work its way here and actually develop a little to cover most of the southern half of the state.

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yeah, really happy with that batch.  Let’s see how round 2 survives 

I think you are shoe in for 2" at this point  We are around an inch as well.  I do not measure as scientifically as you do but this one is easy to measure.  

10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

David Tolleris is an even more comedic aspect to the weather enthusiast community than drunk me is. If you were to place anger, book smarts, and dyslexia and put them into a blender, the result would be a puree of David Tolleris. 

And you can get that nonsense at Starbucks for $9.75 for a Grande. Believe me, you don't *want*, you *need* the Grande. Or the Big Dog, as he calls it.

The ironic thing is that people want him to put their towns in his big snow zones.  As bad as his temper is people love his forecasting. That dude called me at my house one time back in the 90's.  

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Deep Thunder!!!!!

Interesting though I have never heard of that model until last week. 

7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Looking at the current radar, if the western edge doesn't begin to fill back in soon this is going to turn into a 2-hour non-event.  Accumulating rates looking like they'll only be around here for the next hour.  

The HRRR really expands the snow LSV wide later this evening...right or not. 

2 minutes ago, JTrout said:

The band that had the special weather statement issued, now has some meat to it. Has it performed for anyone? I go stuck at work(Lancaster) its not here yet. 

The back part of the second piece of that band is just leaving here.  We have about 1/2" on the deck....little less on roads. 

40 minutes ago, daxx said:

It looks like the fv3 came in better with front end thump for Saturday. 

Well TT is stuck loading the FV3 but I can see 2M temps at 60 and they are in the 50's in the eastern part of the LSV so not going to hold my breath on the other panels.  

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Well, once again I’m left wishing you central pa folks luck...

 

I will be drinking heavily Saturday...this is still better though than watching DC get their 20th foot plus storm this century.

I actually check every map and think of you, at least the last day, before posting it.  We are just as likely to get a lot of rain as snow right now ourselves. 

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

What a surprise with the sudden WWA for our area that just came out.  Only goes until midnight...less than 7 hours long.

So in the end we got our double WWA/WSW anyway. 

Trying to keep the good vibes going the GFS is actually not that bad on the front end.  Supports the WSW issued.  Take an inch or so off this to account for tonight but Lancaster county is surprising good. 

6 minutes ago, daxx said:

It looks like the fv3 came in better with front end thump for Saturday. 

It is not out on TT yet.  Rgem is and it is wet or icy with 2M up in N Pa.  I am not sure I remember any Canadian run being at the front of a trend too often. 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Now it just needs to keep sliding along Blue Mountain and I'm set.  At 40 mph it should be here in about 20 -30 minutes.

Moving a bit NE so I think you see it in 10-15.  Just left a coating here.   Part II of the first part is just behind it. 

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Looks like almost a half inch. The streets have "caved". 

This place is like a virus when it gets the Mets to say Caved.  LOL.  I hope you are not getting "fatties" right now.  

The 18Z GFS moves/transfers/retrogrades the Low into South Central VA now.  It is still too late, at least using the GFS output, to save us from turnover but we are still far enough out to keep open the possibility of that transfer happening earlier.  Where the low at the same time frame of 12Z was in the panhandle of WV is it near Richmond now.   This would jive with Mag's and Millvilles calls for a mostly icy result. 

Steady snow here now...medium sized flakes.