Bubbler86

Just tapering off here.  Ended up with 2.5" measurable on side surfaces and about 1/2" estimated of melt.  Roads never became covered despite temps in the upper 20's.

Sn+ here. Would probably have 2" at this point if we were just a few degrees colder.  Grass is almost covered but roads are just wet.  30 degrees.  

Edit-This is the first snow, since moving here last summer, that I am seeing the effects and advantage of uplifting being on the side of South Mountain.  15-20 dBz echos become 30 dBz as they cross over.  

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

8 hours ago, Voyager said:

 

This must have been a post about the ICON.  Deleted before the paper was dry. 

Has been snowing light to moderate here for about 1.5 hours.  No accumulation outside grass  and trash can type stuff.  It is 30 but just a bit too warm to take over the roads.

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

little meso war going on.... dont ya think? 

12Z NAM's just cancelled my snow while some still have us doing well enough down here.  CTP says east of river is soild advisory, so I'm pulling for them to be right for MBY.  

 

Some of it appears to be temp related as much as qpf.  NAM has it getting in the/near the 40's in Lancaster county. 

12Z NAM looks totally different as it pertains to snowfall today.  It has not been too reliable this go around.

5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

When would frontal squalls roll through area?

From NWS AFD


There remains the potential for localized snow squalls on
Wednesday as the leading edge of -20C to -30C air at 850mb
plows into central PA. Lake effect snow trajectories are focused
outside of CTP CWA into extreme northwest PA (Erie Co.) and
mainly southwest NY.

13 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Seems to me like the main differences in runs/output is dependent on how much the frontal wave interacts with the front in our region and whether or not the areas in the WWA zone get that brief period of higher intensity tomorrow afternoon (12z Euro) or not (12&18z HRRR/NAM).  Its early, but interaction doesn't look to be off to a great start across the south.  If the frontal wave ends up east of the models at all I can see how Harrisburg struggles to reach even an inch.  The NAM snowmaps seem to play up accumulating snow during the morning hours more than what most other models indicate may occur.

Yep, two main camps out there.  The Icon leading the "NWS just screwed up again" camp with just melting light snow around MDT.  I would feel a lot better about tomorrow if it were not going to be near or above freezing.  This is not a major snow either way and taking place during daylight will limit its disruption but that 3-6" forecast is ballsy. 

13 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4".  None of these sites are under the WWA.

CTP did not give Franklin County PA a WWA either re: HGR. 

10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

NAM and 3K are nice runs for Montgomery county and north, especially up around @psuhoffman land. 

18Z HRRR is advertising WSW snows in Carroll County but temps are the question. 

HRRR mostly agrees with Nam though it is advertising a plowable 4-6" just to the east of Cashtown along the mason dixon as well as in Nut land but again temps are not good so something is not right on that depiction.  Mid to upper 30's when the snow is falling. 

18z NAM sort of "held serve" but no one is nam'ed.  2-3" across most of the SV North to South, 4-6 for Lehigh Valley.  Western half of PA is fairly dry. Roads will just be wet without intensity.  

10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Looks like NWS going for a 3-6" snowfall for LSV. 

Its 3-6 for the Northern LSV.  2-4 for the southern half. They have overshot their load two storms in a row now.  3-6" is very high compared to guidance. 

LWX is going with up top 4" at the Mason-Dixon line.  Seems high.  If the offices coordinate that would suggest CTP should be going 2-4 area wide, east of the mountains, with higher totals on the east side of their area.

Just now, pasnownut said:

Yep.  Some bash it....to me its just another tool in the warchest.  To your point it has been a consistent model.....but not always right.  In fairness theyve all struggled.

The Euro has been all over the place.  Not performing well with these smaller events. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Icon is an Eastern pa deal as well.  Anyone west of the river is 1-2 at best. 

Still not sure this one is a win for us (me included). 

3 model runs till go time is 2 too many IMO.

 

The Icon has still been doing quite well with consistency.  I have only seen the FV3 through 18 but it sounded good based on a precip map posted in MA. 

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

When would frontal squalls roll through area?

The GFS is more like a long term light to moderate snow vs. a squall line.  Most of the day tomorrow.  Front seems to go through your area around mid day.

CMC is....ehh....1-3 for most of the state...3-4 far east LSV.

Just now, Voyager said:

 

Same old same old. Model mayhem right up until "go" time...

In my eyes the mayhem makes it more fun...more of a challenge if one likes to do a forecast.  

6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yeah prob a good call out this way 

I am a bit worried with it as if we can keep surface temps down in the AM (we meaning far West LSV) we may get 1-3 in that morning slug then another 1-2 with the Front Passage possibly making my call bust low.  

I am downgrading the west side of my first call with these questionable surface temps and the east trend.

Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Cashtown,  -1-3"
wmsptwx, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Voyager-3-5"
 

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Friggin RGEM suckin my @rse back in.....

lol

You should check out the GFS then.

Every hour that goes by makes this look like more and more of an Eastern PA threat as to breaking 2". 

Too busy to make a map so using my same screen name First Call lineup from before...for Tuesday snow.  Worried about surface temps though especially in Lancaster. 

Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Sauss  -2-4"
Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Cashtown, Voyager-3-5"
wmsptwx-4-6""

5 hours ago, 2001kx said:

I'm assuming things aren't looking good as it is dead in here.

The Euro really lessened the threat for the lower and eastern areas of the state...Americans still going for 3-5" in LSV and 4-6" most of the rest of the state.  NAM has no snow for far SE LSV though.   Euro really is 3-5" of Partly cloudy for S Central PA.