Bubbler86

I like the term Warminista. Warminista's only talk about models when things are going their way. (Not that Canderson is one just to clarify).

LSV and MSV specific MODEL DISCUSSION (too early to make a call on what we will really happen)- The trend of the models, including the 0Z Euro, is to Amp up and phase the second wave hundreds of miles to our West. That is not a good look for this area as Southerly winds will over come the limited/shallow surface cold air just to our north even with a good CAD setup. There is a supply of cold air in Eastern Canada but with no mechanism to bring it down, a storm to our South and East pulling it in, we are stuck with CAD from a retreating High and with temps well into the 20's over NY that leaves little room to fight the WAA. For CAD to really be a big factor we need those low 20's to be over us and teens in NY when the precip arrives so we have a longer thump of snow and then ice (700/850 MB go above freezing) while the temps slowly rise. The GFS and Euro do give us a 2-4" snow before it is all washed away. There is still a train of storms showing up in the long range. If we can get one coming from the S/W to ride the front/boundary instead of of digging we will be in business for a special event.

I figured the forum calmed down because PSUHoffman sort of slighted this thread. "He said we would only have 20 posts, we will show him and not do any!"

Made it to 64 here. Mid level cloud cover has moved in so we are probably topped out. Nice afternoon for a walk! Weather Underground has a few 68's but MDT will not make it to 70 so @anotherman the string of Feb's over 70 stays at two for now. Doubt MDT has a shot at 70 on Friday since the warmest surface temps appear to happen overnight and the first part of the day.

It is almost certainly not all snow which is why I was putting snow/sleet. Doubt it is counting frz. Regardless I was using it as a caution to anyone taking the LR FV3 too seriously when it is showing this in the next 24-30 hours.

It snows/sleets between panels so looking at estimated radar will not show it.

Speaking of LOL's, the Fv3 is also promoting a quick hitting plowable snow/sleet event in Eastern PA tomorrow.

Well it is not at all supported but the Fv3 still insists you are getting a couple inches of snow or sleet tomorrow. LOL

To say today's GFS is a major disappointment would be an understatement. Not just for next Tuesday, which is just a likely to be a flooding rain as it is snow, but the whole long range. Hopefully the EURO suggests we can throw it. Edit-The rumors of storms are still something we can look forward to but I would like to see a consistent run of the boundary staying to our south and the GFS keeps up with cutter town and rain followed by cold. The 12Z Euro came in with a nice save for Tuesday and a 4-8" event with some mix at the end. Stays below freezing the whole event with a strong CAD signature at 850. 7 days out though so not worth much else than mentioning.

You are right. Feb 2017 featured a major torch about the same time as 2018...and 2016 also saw several days in the 50's and 60's. I think January thaw has turned in February thaw.

Yea, I had corrected but you beat me to it with your quote :-). Another amazing thing about last years torch is the almost 40 degree temp swings each day. In compare it may be in the 60's over night this coming Thursday into Friday. One thing that has become apparent is the models under estimated this weeks torch a bit. I did not see anything suggesting 3 days in the 60's like we may end up with.

That heat wave last year was something...glad I missed it. Here is MDT. Crazy thing is that the 77 on 2/20 was not even a record high.

Yea, Nam had dropped the LSV a few runs ago but continued for the USV and North East PA. The Fv3 is your daddy right now. I do not foster much hope of accumulating snow anywhere south of I80 but we saw so much punting from the Rams I thought it pertinent to point out that there was a slight chance of wintery weather in between our 60-70 torch today and then again Friday.

Would not be a total stunner to see someone hit 70 today. Feel likes a May morning right now.

This last few days of LR watching has been interesting in that our area could really score with a train of moderate SLP's with a quasi-stationary front that generally drifts back south of us after the passing of each shortwave. Front end thumps that can stick around despite possible above freezing temps immediately after the storm. Not a pattern for a 2-3 foot monsters but could see several 4-12" type variety storms. Some people actually treasure the remembrance of a month as much as the actual snow fall and I personally would remember February better if we had 4 moderate snow falls vs. 1 big one.

I am not flying into MDT right now but can still see TMI!

You should especially be hugging the FV3 for tomorrow. Ha. I am torn on next week as I will be in Florida Sun to Thursday so I am hoping the train of shortwaves starts building pack later in the week but does seem like Tuesday is a big time hit risk right now.

Inside 24 hrs hours there are still signs of a possible quick burst of snow for people in the North side or Northeast of the LSV. The F3 is especially bullish with the Nam not far behind. All based on the timing of the precip in conjunction with the actual track of the low. Nam actually tracks the shortwave south of PA. In addition the USV could be facing a decent ice event. The F3 shows 2-3" in MDT but still not buying into that...or maybe some grass accumulation plus this could include sleet.

Nam took a step back for Wed but FV3 still advertises a period of snow before changing to rain. Still worth watching in my opinion. Nam lost the snow because it delayed the precip getting into the area.

The FV3 has been advertising it for several days...loses it sometimes then brings it back. Bit of a long shot but if that front makes it through here and a weak wristed system goes to our west there is certainly a chance for some frozen even if it eventually leads to rain. No front and it is a rainer. Here is an FV3 panel from yesterday showing some snow as well...

I love reading stuff like this...did not think about the significance and rarity of having more snow in November than any month in winter. FWIW, MDT squeaked out more snow in Jan than Nov this season but it was only about 1/2" apart so basically the same thought of how pedestrian the snow fall totals have been this winter.

That is one steep hill! Pretty amazing. Kind of like a tropical rain shower where it rains on one side of the house but not the other.

The NAM continues to suggest we have a frozen storm coming up Wed afternoon and evening...up a bit from the previous Thursday thought. It actually shows significant snow accumulation but I am not buying that yet as 850's are quite warm. If it gets snow through that level it will be wet and fat. I do not see a particularly strong CAD signature at the surface (though at 700MB it is there) vs. simply the front getting past us and the air being just cold enough to have to watch for sleet/freezing rain and the NAM snow storm.

I was at Ski Liberty last evening and it was 26 degrees at the base. Driving home I went through Blue Ridge Summit, which is 1000-2000 feet higher, and the temp spiked to 33 and then back down in the 20's as I go to the other side of the mountain. Valleys rule sometimes. LOL