Bubbler86

Yea, that was why I said Hybrid...it is a very unique setup. That sharp cutoff to the moisture for say the intersection of 78 and 81 north east really suggests something other than simply dry air is stealing the energy. My defiinition of a Miller B has always been more that any given area that is seemingly going to get snow based on radar extropolation, then gets nothing as a transfer cuts off the conveyor belt, would qualify as a Miller B. We do not always have to get the screw job. Allentown can get screwed by if the same scenario happening but the coastal takes an eastern track out to sea vs. up the coast. The Icon's depiction though is neither. Everyone gets snow from wave A and or Wave B.

Then again the Icon delays a coastal and actually brings decent snow to East Central PA Friday night. Going to be a tough forecast for NWS Met's. The icon is a weenie run. 12" + inches for many in Souhern and Eastern PA from 3 different and distinct waves from Friday to Sunday.

I concur.

NAM at 84 hours yells incoming for Sunday. One important difference between it and the GFS twins is that it is a few hundred miles east/faster with the SLP such as at 7AM on Sunday snow is already knocing on the door of Western PA where as the GFS is six hours later. Implications for extropolating but I usually do not do that.

Also you had mentioned Miller B's earlier this week. The more I watch the NAM's evolution of Friday the more I see this being considered a type of Hybrid/Miller B vs. just simply a slug of moisture streaming over us. The coastal is really negatively affecting areas of East Central PA as to accums.

The great thing about this map is that the GFS twins show little to now snow Friday sio this really is a foot of snow. GFS shows simlar but less generous. Not going to hug the GFS though as I threw it out for our Friday snow.

Ha, thanks. In all fairness I was initially keying in on Wed for similar reasons as Friday...a slug of moisture meandering around the lower Tennessee valley/Southeast though the stuff yesterday and today was further south which helped lead to it never getting picked up. I am a tad surprised Friday has not been tracked more on this forum and why I posted a few “Hey, don’t forget Friday” posts earlier this week. . Maybe everyone is tired of these 2-4” events. Here is the Euro map from the MA and ironically it is flipped vs. my forecast. 2-4 for the Candersons and Blizz’s of the forum and 1-3 for Cash and I. Wonder how much, if any, is from the a coastal energizing it a bit.

Disspointed you did not post the 18Z GFS snow map!

Going with the seasonal trends. Model wise, RGEM, HRDRPS, NAM, Icon all go 2" or more for us...I think EC was 1-2". So bumped it a bit. Biggest risk is the Dauphin and Cumberland county crew and also planning for it to start before sunrise and get the accumulations going. Threw the GFS out. Canada drops a quick 4-8" on you so if you know French now would be the time to use it! :-)

First call for Friday and Friday night...to include both the initial wave and moisture and any coastal enhancement. The constant theme of the year...Cashtown, Mag and I come first. Going from memory on names and this is all for fun to help with forum involvement though these are my forecasts for now. Bubbler @Cashtown_Coop @MAG5035...... 2-4" @2001kx@CarlislePaWx @daxx @Blizzard of 93 @sauss06 @canderson @Itstrainingtime @pasnownut.......1-3" @Wmsptwx @Voyager .....T-1"

We are progged to get a plowable snow in 36 hours so Euro long range fails are not going to dampen anything for me. :-)

I was always hoping for the two streams to have more "agreement" with each other today otherwise it was only a 1 or 2 inch max snow anyways but Friday could be more...probably not way up there though.

The way Americanwx jumps from threat to threat I would think the guy from Office Space that created the Jump to Conclusions mat would have been better off creating a jump to the next threat map. The southern half of PA JUST missed out on a accumulating snow today but Friday is the next best bet in my opinion. The Herps Derps is probably the model running number one meso wise over this winter and it has a 3-5" quick hitter for the LSV Friday.

The thing that is so much fun about the 18Z Nam, on an island with this, is that it shows it snowing over Central PA for most of a 24 hour period.

At my place, where winds are usually 5-10MPH over forecast, I beleive the winds were fairly fierce at 1000-1500 feet as I heard more roaring than usual from up the mountain but below 1000 I would not even call this a top 3 event for the season. No garbage scattered around, no chairs, etc...highest gust I saw last night was in the 40's. We have had 60+ several times since Dec 1. On to our Friday snow.

Blizz, I am with you in watching next week for snow. I was really hoping the pattern would ease a bit and let the slug of moisture, in the SE, come up Wed but now looking like Friday is our better bet. I did get a lesson on how the weather most of us love to talk about can turn bad. Been watching a duck at a local pond over the last two weeks as he seemingly could not walk anymore and was mostly using his wings to move himself around. We grabbed him Friday with the intention of taking him to the vet and possibly getting a split and letting him heal assuming he had a broken leg...turns out the days where it got below zero gave his feet severe frostbite and he would never be able to walk again so my rescue turned into a very sad evening where we had to make the decision to allow the vet to euthanize him instead of letting him loose again for what would have eventully been a terrible death to a predator. So my vote is for snow and 25 not snow and -5.

Thanks. I did just notice the Icon AND the GEM gets the Wed Northern Stream Low under us and gives the Western half of PA a nice event...only a trace to 2" in the LSV. New England gets 2-4" from it on the Icon so it is still something to watch.

Just saw the map posted on MA. Surpisingly warm at 850 and 2M almost as if there was another LP cutting to the west.

I am not as advserse to snow maps as some...especially the snow depth maps. It is interesting to see possibilities. Those TT maps fooled me earlier in the season.

Regardless of the GFS runs, I am still interesated in Wed to Friday of next week. Two opportunities if timing can be a bit better as to shortwaves in the Northern and Southern streams. Need some level of phasing to give us a trough that allows a low to at least come north if not totally phase and get the TV Met's saying the word Nor'easter again. It has been a while since that word has been tossed around. FV3 is actually not all that far off on Wed.

And they all show events with no ice at all so the accumulations on these maps are precise.

12Z GFS Snowfall map. 12Z FV3 Snowfall Map

My tag does not say "Smart Poster" and I am not totally sure of each models bias toward properly gauging wind speed but here is the panel of the 12Z GFS showing the max wind speeds for Eastern PA. Does not really jump out at me as being much different than the other half dozen wind events this season. My specific location has high winds quite frequently and a local WUnderground anemometer has recorded over 65 MPH gusts 3 times since the start of the year so not sure this is much different. These winds are in knots but the conversion to MPH only adds 3-4 on to these sustained predictions.

Not a big FAN.