Bubbler86

It would be a second round if I win a bet on the parlay :-).

Yikes. This just ratcheted up a bit. I think Nut owes me a beer (evening beer, not a beach beer in a bucket) so I would only be up for taking that beer and parlaying with my own beer as my wager on the next bet. A little to no lose situation. That Nut Beer is like an extra draft pick in my back pocket right now. Do I use it and risk coming away with nothing or trade it for more gains?

Right, its hard to put the odd's on a statewide basis. I agree that there is a much better chance Pitt hits 93 over the next 30-45 days vs MDT hitting 99. If I am manipulating the data correctly, there have only been 5 recordings of 100 or above in PA this summer and all at COOP stations so no official stations. Seems fairly low but not sure if it is. Ship hit it two days.

Rain for south MD border counties tonight? Scatted convection everywhere today?

If I were putting a number on that I would put that at 90-95 percent when using averages, time of the year and models going out into several days into Sept now. At least for the LSV area. Most have hit 98-99 this year. But interesting odd's thought. MDT's high is 98 in the 3rd hottest June in recorded history. We can agree its not getting that hot under any circumstances until at least mid next week so take August 24th. In MDT history it's only gotten above 98 five days past that date so statistically the chance is probably less than 1-2%.

Yea, I personally am not calling 70's and low 80's in early Sept anything other than ok. I really do not expect real fall weather until October. Just no 90's in Sept and certainly no "heat waves" however one may categorize them. If the GFS hot days next week are whittled down to match the other two, we may be done with extreme heat....maybe.

CFS really kicks the country into early fall Mid Sept with no major heat between now and then. Just a trend watcher of course as to using the CFS.

Looking ahead the GFS has several days in the low to mid 90's through August....Euro has maybe one and CMC has none. All 3 have East PA seeing outer bands from Henri (or enhanced from) meaning two Tropical related systems affecting PA in one week. Numerous other almost daily rain chances with tonight and tomorrow AM being one to watch for a shot at a more steady rain as a S/W goes by to the south.

I guess when I said pales I meant we got that in 3 days vs, your one day total. But I am glad we got our 2". Anything else was runoff over here.

Even totals over 5" in Gettysburg (72 hour) Over 6" north of the Paxtang Rapids. 2 1/4" here. Our event total matches pales to Trainingtimes day. LOL.

News story on the York Daily record page right now....about flooding....1 year ago today.

That is crazy. Wow

@Itstrainingtime

Pillow is being de-fluffed.

LOL, that is funny. It's the fat part of a t-ball bat.

Line continues to reenergize south of the M/D And you have cells to your east. Bring in the pets and enjoy the show (maybe?).

Oh boy....

Pine Grove Furnace over 4" today.

Eastern Lancaster county is getting trained from the south right now.

He has the best moniker on the site.

Line taking on a bit of a bow look near Gettysburg. Could be some straight line winds forming me eventually...if they translate to the surface well.

You are definitely in the line for risk now. Line is not abating at all.

The HRRR continues to warn all of the LSV to keep their eyes to the sky for this line. Rain and wind were not that bad but the wind got very strange and gusty when the tornado warning hit so I suspect there was at least a partially descended funnel cloud near. Took the family (animals and humans) into the basement in lieu of trying to be Jim Cantore.

We are defintely seeing wind consistent with something to my south but can only see westward from the basement. Something is out there.

Thanks. Just over the hill from me.