Bubbler86

Aaaannnnd, pillow is on the board for today. Tonight looks like a losetoa winner night.

FFW's one county off the line to our south.

Its pretty much all happening over in the NE Sub Thread, Henri topic.

Euro is sort of a tweener of the other two but more leaning toward the CMC. Did not look at upper levels as it is on its own with the handling of Henri which could have implications.

Following up on this, the Euro is even more North with tonight's weak system and basically throws several hours of light rain well into PA now.

I was not familiar but found these threads with some discussion which suggests some extra hardware or software is needed at this point (as of May). The one thread devolves into a discussion about rum. https://community.weatherflow.com/t/cwop-sharing-data/6823 https://community.weatherflow.com/t/cwop-integration/5709

CMC did not do so well on that last stretch of heat but as of this AM the Euro had a similar depiction. The GFS was too hot here last week at this range. 5-10 degrees too high showing multiple 100+ days. But it still did best of the 3 I think. But this is atmospheric differences as well. Ironically the CMC sets up the greater heat just off to your left. Pitt is higher than MDT at 18Z a week from today.

12Z GFS and CMC still quite different with apparent weather next week. Good 10 degrees different in surface temps. GFS has the SER while do not see much of it on the CMC vs, a cut off trough in the SE.

This is probably the place to get that info. They show Wunderground under Third Party Apps. https://help.weatherflow.com/hc/en-us/articles/115005229547-Integrations Weather Underground Tempest can send data directly to a Weather Underground PWS, here's how to set up a data feed... Log in to your account on WeatherUnderground.com Go to My Profile > My Weather Stations > Click button ‘Add new PWS’ Gather your new Weather Underground PWS ID and station key Sign in to your Tempest account on the web: https://tempestwx.com/ Then go to settings > stations > select your station > Public Data > Link Weather Underground > enter your WU PWS station ID and key > (optional) toggle rain > Link It can take 30 minutes to an hour before WU starts publishing your station data on their websites and apps.

I meant T as in Trace but not making a predict. Lots of on and off showers the next few days starting tomorrow (modeled). Especially East.

The HRRR is riding the hot hand for the LSV and he (or she) says you get a T. That sun is s till a little toasty for my liking today. Not bad in the shade.

@Cashtown_Coop, Nam likes you for the winner tonight. 3K is similar,

12Z Nam. Notice the MB is fairly high so just a TS but was probably a Cat 1 on LI landfall. Lancaster county and east picks up decent rain Sat night in the moisture stream coming from the south.

It would be a second round if I win a bet on the parlay :-).

Yikes. This just ratcheted up a bit. I think Nut owes me a beer (evening beer, not a beach beer in a bucket) so I would only be up for taking that beer and parlaying with my own beer as my wager on the next bet. A little to no lose situation. That Nut Beer is like an extra draft pick in my back pocket right now. Do I use it and risk coming away with nothing or trade it for more gains?

Right, its hard to put the odd's on a statewide basis. I agree that there is a much better chance Pitt hits 93 over the next 30-45 days vs MDT hitting 99. If I am manipulating the data correctly, there have only been 5 recordings of 100 or above in PA this summer and all at COOP stations so no official stations. Seems fairly low but not sure if it is. Ship hit it two days.

Rain for south MD border counties tonight? Scatted convection everywhere today?

If I were putting a number on that I would put that at 90-95 percent when using averages, time of the year and models going out into several days into Sept now. At least for the LSV area. Most have hit 98-99 this year. But interesting odd's thought. MDT's high is 98 in the 3rd hottest June in recorded history. We can agree its not getting that hot under any circumstances until at least mid next week so take August 24th. In MDT history it's only gotten above 98 five days past that date so statistically the chance is probably less than 1-2%.

Yea, I personally am not calling 70's and low 80's in early Sept anything other than ok. I really do not expect real fall weather until October. Just no 90's in Sept and certainly no "heat waves" however one may categorize them. If the GFS hot days next week are whittled down to match the other two, we may be done with extreme heat....maybe.

CFS really kicks the country into early fall Mid Sept with no major heat between now and then. Just a trend watcher of course as to using the CFS.

Looking ahead the GFS has several days in the low to mid 90's through August....Euro has maybe one and CMC has none. All 3 have East PA seeing outer bands from Henri (or enhanced from) meaning two Tropical related systems affecting PA in one week. Numerous other almost daily rain chances with tonight and tomorrow AM being one to watch for a shot at a more steady rain as a S/W goes by to the south.

I guess when I said pales I meant we got that in 3 days vs, your one day total. But I am glad we got our 2". Anything else was runoff over here.

Even totals over 5" in Gettysburg (72 hour) Over 6" north of the Paxtang Rapids. 2 1/4" here. Our event total matches pales to Trainingtimes day. LOL.

News story on the York Daily record page right now....about flooding....1 year ago today.

That is crazy. Wow