Bubbler86

Something to keep an eye on with interest albeit disdain as well... I guess. If I were to guess right now, for MDT, I think we have a day where it does not clear our all that well and temps are held back. I know better than to try and forecast in your area without experience.

Not sure what he uses but I was using the 5 days at least 9 over average....that would be 5 days in a row breaking 93-94 at MDT. I agree that they probably do break 90 3 days in a row.

700th post on this thread and mentioning JB. He does not deserve it. JB called for a heat wave. Not sure he will get that but its not going to be cool and with a 1.8 degree lead already, MDT is almost assured of coming in above average for the month.

GFS going bonkers with the low 90's next week.....7 days in a row at MDT. Not fully supported by anything yet though the EC implies similar for at least 5 of the days.

He just cancelled tropical season for the MA.

If the low backs in to just above PA in S/E NY State I think the orientation of the forcing on the trough could adjust to get over you or I tonight or Monday.

Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 508 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 PAZ058-059-066-222100- /O.EXT.KCTP.FA.A.0003.210822T1100Z-210823T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster- Including the cities of Pottsville, Lancaster, and Lebanon 508 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Lancaster, Lebanon and Schuylkill. * Through Monday morning. * Bands of slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the western edge of deep tropical moisture from Hurricane Henri will occur across the watch area today and tonight. Several rounds of heavy rainfall with rates in excess of 2 inches per hour will elevate the threat for flooding of poor drainage areas, along with small streams and creeks. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected by 8 am Monday. Localized flash flooding may occur in areas experiencing longer durations of heavy rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Lambert/Steinbugl

I still think lots of PA sees quite a bit of rain....some have already. Not the actual system as much as moisture being wrung out by the trough. Looks like Lancaster county has several reports (east and west) over 1" now from a more stratiform though tropical like moisture flow. If the models that loop it back (GFS, HRR, Nam now) are correct we could see some real impressive totals even West of the Susq where there is already some 1/2-3/4" totals as well. Some may have two days of fairly solid rain.

Mdt had snowpack from Jan 4th through March 22. Every day.

Jan 1, 2018 I believe .....correction, Jan 3, 2018

I saw an NWS Philly map somewhere and I think you were in the 1-1.5" area. But do not quote me. Cannot find it right now.

Is Dave Tolleris's middle name Wayne or William? DW?

Henri has an eye. Better late than never.

I was waiting for the first "clipper us to hell" post.

Bring her water. LOL. They are starting to crimp down on it more around Colorado (at least).

18Z HRRR continues to be a drought ender (for those in drought).

IMO, that is good if you want rain in Pallemschteddel.

Even if it does not loop as far west as the HRRR is predicting, I bet there are some 2-4" totals in this area of PA as the moisture streams back upon the trough....loop back and we go 6-10" lollipops and expanding the zone up into NE PA.

Yea and I keep posting it because 1) The Hrrr usually does not show qpf in that amounts. 2) It will not let go of the low coming in so far south and west them looping back over PA. I know better than to try and forecast this myself but still something to keep an eye on. And with tropical systems the model qpf's are frequently low in the areas that end up with the most.

The HRRR still giving parts of LSV a thumping. Waynesboro just picked up 3/4"" of rain in 40 min. Rain Forest tropical downpour. Nothing in the 'Ville so far.

He Is a heat meister so he has mixed feelings about it. Ha.

And he was the "man" for my first back in PA snowstorm in NOV of '18. He called it while others were poo poo. Lol

I was more following the model madness vs. Begging on the rain. Do not want anyone's basement to flood.

A surprising 62 this Am. Watching Henri so much I forgot to to watch temps in the back yard. Humid though.

But he would have all the data showing who had hacked HRRR. Unfortunately only he and The Sleestack can read the data so you will just have to trust him.