Bubbler86

No discussions of +8 Septembers over here?

86 here. Definitely not rocketing up as quickly right now.

There is an area of higher temps out your way. Interesting to watch on Wunder. Other areas mostly in the upper 80's right now.

MDT, LNS and York all right there with you at this hour.

Make an interesting observation afternoon. I do not have a dog in this show other than thinking the HRRR dropped the ball if you get above 93 or so.

The constant cicada sounds makes it feel ever hotter as well. Just checked the HRRR and fast heat rise is in there but temps level off a lot between 12-4 only going up a 2-3 degrees. Let's see how that works out as if its not correct we should see some mid 90's today.

82 here at 11:15. 90 definitely reachable.

-12 the first week, +20 the Next 18 days, -15 the last 3 days with a T.

Sept continues to be the only month that MDT has never recorded at least a T. Maybe we can break that this year.

How about above normal snowfall with a +8 departure?

It's interesting banter though probably annoying to many. Point taken.

I did not do the math for real but I was calculating on over a week. I think I mentioned Sept 8th but actually did the math in my head for 1.5 weeks or the end of the Sept 10th week (end of the current GFS run) so adjusting with your math using my eyeballed -12 which may not be right but was using it for a point: +8*30 = 240 -12*10 = -120 240 + 120 = 360 360 / 20 = ~18 So I still over stated quite a bit on the -25. That is what I get for posting and not doing math. I think if we just did to Sept 7th, MDT may be a bit over -12 departure with those low 70's highs and low 50's lows.

Just using the 6Z GFS and eyeballing the numbers, MDT would be around a -12 departure going into Sept 8th. That alone is an incredible number to have that high of a departure (negative) over more than a week. So MDT would need to average a +25 departure the rest of the month to counteract it. Again, the GFS could be very wrong so just doing numbers with what we have today.

Like winning the lottery. A rare occurrence. Not going to do all the math but your last half would have had to actually been plus 15 or 20 to counter act starting off around -5 to -8 as of the 13th.

For any give day, yes. A whole month? See my last post.

Your output is a good example of what I was referencing. You had no negative departures and still just barely made it. A few days of -5 to -10 departures and I think it is pretty tough. The GFS pretty much ends hopes right away with several pretty big negative departure days though it could be wrong of course.

The average/normal low Sept 1 is 63, Sept 15 is 59 and Sept 30th is 53. As an example of how it falls.

It truly would need to be in the 80's and 90's every day regardless of lows. The average high is 80 or more until Sept 12th. Just a few days below average and +8 is almost not possible.

Just to clarify, its not my call. I was just reminding of a call we had seen elsewhere. LOL. If you ask me, +8 is like winning the lottery....almost never going to happen. If I had to make a call I would say -1 as of now.

Definitely agree. Being more familiar with Florida schools still I will say that they do it to allow for long Thankgiving (one week) and Christmas breaks. At least that is one reason. But no school in Florida is without A/C.

You just entered into a page of infamy with starting our 200th page on a summer thread.

Mostly agree except "The U". Michael Irvin's biggest fault.

Sounds like a very fair assessment and good chance of verifying.

We can all agree that Red Tide is bad, right? Maybe not if a 'Bama fan.

LOL, two weeks in a row of Florida snow talk.