I am frankly not sure where to get data for OCF temps but if you find it you should see some lows in the 40's (or maybe even upper 30's) in October 2006.
It snowed again in November 2006 and that was officially recorded at some recording stations. The snow I saw in October was not but it was real. I was out playing tennis under the lights and it was COLD.
They are changing up the parameters a bit and the storm is being pulled back more than previously forecast...IMO its moving faster and catching the ULL to the north at a further west spot. It cannot be long until someone says Fujiwara.
The Euro is being bashed pretty badly as it has been very, very bad with Henri. Just not it's cup of tea. The Hey Mon Hurricane Model continues the West Trend and brings it into Central NJ. Cat 1. Was into LI at 6Z.
Track is one thing but that storm on the 3K would have an incredible amount of pent up energy in the storm surge even though it would be down to a high end Cat two at landing. It very well may cut LI in half with surge. Not going to happen but still.