Bubbler86

That model would make Voyager happy though by that point its surly just a windy/rainy day. If it starts stalling/looping then game on for big issues.

ABE takes the hit. HWRF is going for LI.

On TT go to Hurricane, HMON then pick the storm (Henri).

The Euro is being bashed pretty badly as it has been very, very bad with Henri. Just not it's cup of tea. The Hey Mon Hurricane Model continues the West Trend and brings it into Central NJ. Cat 1. Was into LI at 6Z.

Track is one thing but that storm on the 3K would have an incredible amount of pent up energy in the storm surge even though it would be down to a high end Cat two at landing. It very well may cut LI in half with surge. Not going to happen but still.

A tight Cat 4. RI would lead to the end of LI.

So I guess this could be happy 10th anniversary?

Not sure but the GFS is king there right now. The RGEM depiction would be a non event for most of them...maybe some surge. No one is talking about it.

Kuch?

That is how we roll here. We have gone from planning picnics and hikes during a dry weekend to Agnes references.

So when you say Haskins is your guy, you really mean it?

It loops around 2-3 times and keeps coming back to visit your house. Agnes anyone? I could see 15" totals with that type of scenario.

We have been discussing that this AM. Eastern Pa is definitely "in play" for flooding rains right now. May not transpire but would not be a total surprise. The QPF map you posted is an extreme surprise though. LOL. The SNE thread is doing all they can to ignore it.

Absolutely. Climate change can make the water colder and air colder (for a while), more 'Canes, more of anything really...or less of anything. But your posts frequently require a bit of discernment so I wanted to double check!

Is that a hidden jab at Climate Change making it hot all the time? Ha

I guess that is my point. It seems that no matter what we think we know about them, they do what they want and frequently defy what we consider to be logic but what is actually ignorance. But its current location is still well within the Gulf Stream so its not in the Caribbean but its still getting fuel.

Kuch or No Kuch....road temps....did new data get ingested at 18Z....PBP....its all just around the corner. LIke I mentioend a few days ago, Summer is done in the 'VIlle. Does not matter what temps get to at any point, fall is setting up camp.

You were getting a little bored yesterday :-)

I think anyone from OC, MD up to SNE should be on high alert. Several models are now bringing it into SNJ or CNJ. I remember Hurricane Charley, in 2004, was modeled and "destined" to send Tampa Bay back to the stone ages and over a matter of 4 hours, he said "Yoink" and took a hard right and destroyed Punta Gorda.

Most of the Eastern half of the state gets some rain from Henri now with it being that close to the coast. Showery stuff....the thing is, Henri is just now starting to intensify. How many years and times do we have to go through and remember that our models are terrible at forecasting intensification. If it was a Cat 3 or Cat 4 in 12-18 hours, no one should be surprised. A stronger storm could tighten up the rain field and put less of PA in the wet....a sloppy storm and we could be seeing bands back to Ohio.

The 3K does have several smallish lines of storm coming at the LSV from the S/E tomorrow and tomorrow night.

I feel a lot better this AM being in a wet environment for once. People in Buffalo get most upset when you point out that the majority of their snow is fake.

Maybe someone saw the QB's face mask and yelled at him to take it off and it went from there. :-)

There are still several EPS and GEFS members that bring it straight into NJ. LOL.