Bubbler86

Yep and seeing the HRRR latch on to the line being down into VA makes me think I at least get some more rain. I do not think the line will have congealed yet once it passes me in the next hour.

Reality or not, that is one classic Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Squall line. 19z HRRR verify at 7PM EDT.

Need a towel, friend?

I live those kind of places and pouring a St Bernardus on the web page does nothing but want to me me go there more :-). I like what is on your web page, Nut's friend!

The Todd, PA to Paw Paw, MD line is really coming into focus for western LSV people while central is ravaged by line one.

The Harrisburg/New Oxford system literally stole your thunder.

I am starting to buckle down here. In case something happens. Been a downer rain wise but still could get ugly in the next 2-3 hours.

There is your predict.

Interesting thing I have seen on and off the last few days...the HRRR expects the forming line to be so "explosive" that it is flashing the surface low reflection over to it for a few frames.

LOL. I am always just careful to not offend unless I want to. And Sauss...he told me that if I lose a bet to him he has two levels of bets. Daytime/in the sand beer bets where $10 gets a bucket of beer....and evening bets where each beer is $10 a bottle. Speaking of beer prices if you ever want to feel entitled and well to do by paying as much for beer as you possibly can, go to a World of Beer location and order anything that is slightly rare or high ABV. They make you fill out a credit app before bringing it to your table :-).

@Cashtown_Coop, not sure where your course is but there sure is a lot of Adams county rain right now. Some 3" or more add on totals maybe?

Some storms starting to stir near Paw Paw.

You guys are like the little Grand Rapids. A feeder into the main deal in Harrisburg. Harrisburg finds rain when NWS Zones say Sunny and hot.

LOL. And I am not really trying to prove anyone wrong just following the models and radar. So don't take my posts as countering yours. I just cannot believe the HRRR would be THAT wrong this close in. I have also said the south LSV is a risk to miss including me. But I think the grand rapids of the LSV, Harrisburg, is going to get whacked.

We should know in 30-60 min if the HRRR is out to lunch. This area should light up and march NE ward.

I am taking radar ob's (first line) with model info (second line hammers Lanco just after rush hour) to come to my opinion but definitely not out of the woods in LSV.

West Central Cumberland county getting whacked again.

If anything the stuff in Birdland may lead to a double whammy for Lanco as this is just the first line still.

I am usually a bit of a downer when it comes to Severe potential but I am guessing we see that second line develop into something that will affect most of the LSV. South is the riskiest to miss.

Here is the HRRR when going through LSV and then a few hours later. Still something but not as congealed and impressive.

Both the HRRR and 3K sort of do the Tamaqua split...seriously. With nightfall and loss of heating the line degrades as it leaves the LSV heading NE. Still some rain and storms just not as squally looking.

Latest HRRR gives a boost to more dramatic results in S/W LSV.

Well, Nut....if Canderson had written this I would be thinking he is pushing moderation boundaries again but not sure about you.

LOL. I remember that. I did have a wind gust into the mid 20's and there are some leaves down! Not wearing a hood though. I will rebuild.

Guess I do not get this to say this too often anymore so better get it in now...just slapped by an outer band of <Tropical System Name>. Everything is wet with some leaves down.