Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Not too shabby. Highest 18Z Temp at MDT is 85. I think KPIT had an 87. Night time lows go back and forth from just above to just below average until the end when they are above average a bit more solidly. We cannot ask it to stay below 80 every day, right?
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12Z GFS continues to forecast a Chamber Of Commerce weekend coming up (to help drown our Labor day is over blues.) Highs in the 70's Saturday and low to mid 80's Sunday. Low DP's and dry. DP's tickle 60 on Sunday. Sat Am starts off in the low to mid 50's.
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HRRR and 3K Nam are both fairly impressed with a robust albeit quick hitting line of severe. Could see watches. The 3K in particular suggests it will a fairly well defined line that gets most at least wet.
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I looked at LNS and York and it was not too far off. I am thinking some of the previous nights lows were a bit higher than modeled or forecasted due to clouds hanging on.
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MDT stuck it to me yesterday getting quite a bit warmer than forecast so they got a little above normal.
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Not taking time away from Labor day to study models but a quick peek at 2M temps on the 18Z GFS shows much above normal temps in the S/E next week so I am guessing much of the discrepancy is based on the advancement of that area (or lack of). I will take some Labor Day time if Blizz has any drought concerns. I can help him map out his plan of attack to keep the grass alive.
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The NWS Zones are out through 7 days from now (Sept 13th) and using that along with predicted model temps, its possible MDT stays at or below normal every day of the first 13 days of Sept. Might be close a couple days to nudging slightly above but if they accomplish even 11 or 12 of the first 13, that is quite the nice streak.
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I took your word for it as you are spot on with the model interpretations. MDT specific, its rare that we do not get one 90's day in Sept (though last year I think 85 was the highest if I remember correctly).
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I did not look at the EC but the latest CMC and GFS are having none of it (90's) so still up for grabs. Upper 40's and low 50's tonight :-).
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Yanks are fading again.
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Blizzard of '93: President of the Bedford Area Water Preservation Society. Won"t someone think of the Bedfordians!
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Or a couple counties to my left in Bedford, PA. This was pre Ida though so I suspect they withdraw that one though the conditions in WV may not have improved enough to withdraw, unsure. Different kinds of droughts and an agricultural drought is only helped so much when 5" of rain falls in a day.
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You make it sound like we issue the drought maps. I did enjoy a lot of free time not being saddled with Marysville twice a week mows.
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Rain hung around the M/D line after that first area went through this AM.
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Even if we split it mid way and have "normal temps", its better than the hot GFS from a few days ago I think. Sunny and low 80's is quite nice for Sept :-). I did not look at the EC but CMC has one day about 85 at MDT over the next 10.
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Feeling more and more enthusiastic after Sept.
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Up to .35 here now. Great temp day, terrible weather day. Has never really stopped raining for more than 15 min.
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I think either has little chance. We are -4.5 as of today. Verbatim Sept will end on a fairly decent negative departure from the GFS. High's in the low 50's Sept 19th (I think) and only one day above normal on the whole run. But not sure we get to -8.
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A warm September is starting to take a hit. Still just model forecast though.
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I agree. I was going to say something but I do not want to rant on the NWS too much. They were about 4 hours behind even with last evenings zones. Not sure up north your way but I suspect it rains on and off down here all day with a line of storms possible later. Lots of rain coming North East from WV.
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Some very early Blue. The majority of the state would be subject to frost chances.
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Nice hit this AM. about .20". 59 degrees. Could be quite the rainy day.
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Fun times going to the store to get some candy (or ball cards in the 60's and 70's)
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I forgot who said what. I think Paweather was probably the one I was thinking about now that I try to remember. But it was not directed at you or anyone I just remember several posts about PSU not winning today. Ha. PS-You are one of the top posters here, I would not direct something at you :-).
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Frosty Mid Sept for Northern PA.
