Bubbler86

58 this AM. SPC upped/expended the risk for today. So did the NWS Zones which now say 1-2" of rain for some in the LSV (tonight). 5% tornado is also back to MDT now.

King CMC

18Z GFS... from 6Z Fri the 17th until 18Z Mon the 20th, the temp at MDT stays between 60 and 65 the entire time.

My continued dissection of summer appears to have inadvertently lead you to the wrong thread. Apologies. Lol

It's just an opinion but lines up with the same theory of our world rushing the good seasons like putting out Christmas stuff in Sept and Oct.

Looks like someone "talked" WPC into issuing a FFW for Eastern PA. Throw the science out the window. It's gut feeling time. Just like on these boards, peoples true thoughts come out in seemingly agnostic postings. The AFD writing Met for Phl thinks tomorrow is a big risk day while CTP's met is reaching for the sun screen and thinking its a nothing burger. SPC/WPC continue to place MRGL outlooks for Excessive Rain and SVR over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA for Wed afternoon and evening, INVOF a nearly north-south lee trough. Marginally stronger llvl winds and vorticity will occur across our mid and upper Susq Mainstem counties where the close proximity of the aforementioned warm front will create a very low prob of a few transient supercells and perhaps an isolated, weak tornado (indicated by PCs inclusion of the 2% risk area over CTP`s eastern zones in their Dye outlook). Heavy rainfall risk is highest well east of my CWA, and WPC was talked into a Day 2 SLGT risk over far eastern PA for Wednesday afternoon/eve.

If you look back at the first Winter 20/21 and Fall 20 thread you will see they both started using the dates Met's use. So I still contend that this is a primarily cold driven board which is fine using Met dates for fall and winter but uses Astro dates for Spring and Summer as sort of a "well if I have to, I have to" way of trying to hang on to Winter and Spring longer.

SPC maps for tomorrow

3:20 PM on Sept. 7th, 2021...paweather has stated that the "Euro stinks". Wanted to make sure I had a searchable time and date stamp on your post :-).

Euro still insisting on extremes next week.

I just realized this thread was not only quite long, it was the longest (reply wise) in the available history of the Upstate NY/PA sub Thread. I say this acknowledging that winter threads used to be split up into months but still an interesting piece of info. Because it was a core group of posters who were here it is no where near the l most read forum just the most replies.

If more than 2 of them gave an accurate number I would be surprised though there are a LOT of hidden weather weenies in the world. But even weather weenies do not keep track of average temps by heart. I suspect at least one of them would say that there is no Dew Point when below freezing...its called the frost point then. :-).

Yes, its all about getting the temp right not playing a 50/50 game of above or below normal. I believe the agencies that rank model scores (though I think they do it more on fronts vs. temps) have different scales to accommodate length of time out into the 15 days and weighing errors appropriately. The only time I would not agree with your first sentence is if winter precip is involved. A winter day where a model suggests 25 and snow but it is 50 and rain is worse (at least to the public view) than a prediction of 40 and rain that turned into 65 and rain.

I agree with your assertion using that data as a basis. Its really hard to pinpoint the 9 out of 15 piece but fairly easy to be confident in taking that data and saying its normal for a lot of Sept days to have DP's into the 60's or higher. Believe the chart suggests that close to half of Sept 7's are above 60 DP.

Personally I would judge on departure from forecast so its a very egregiously bad forecast in your example.

This site takes the Sept DP's and is comparable to May/Early June https://weatherspark.com/y/21982/Average-Weather-in-Harrisburg-Pennsylvania-United-States-Year-Round

The 850 positive anomalies are outrageous in conjunction with those temps. I checked out zone forecasts for Ok and Kanas, this Saturday, and they are 10-20 degrees lower.

I am not even sure it would be helpful to gather info on the highest DP of a given day. Rain causes the RH to go up obviously but raining into relatively dry air at the surface will cause the temp to fall and DP to rise a bit. So we could have a day with DP's in the 50's, we get a shower, and the DP rises to the 60's for a bit and then back down when the shower is over...but that day is then recorded as a 60's DP day.

I thought you meant public. LOL. They never opened the Caledonia pool this year due to labor (I was told).

My take on your first question is that DP's are not relative to only being high in the summer. But I do not have any stats to back up the average amount of days the DP stays at 60 or below in each September. I would think the mid 20's in the map below is a bit below normal. Question 2...if we do not concern ourselves then nothing to talk about I guess.

That is less due to temps and more due to low wages :-). Not pay $20/hr (or in that area)? Not gonna have life guards.

And I have been focusing on the temps since the departures were the point of conversation a few weeks ago. I realize you want the DP's. LOL. Quick scan and MDT has a 60 or lower DP at some point each of the next 7 days and Pit the same just one day less at 6. The coldinista's win Early and Mid Sept if those maps are right though it would probably be better to say averaginista. .

I did just notice MDT only made it to 60 last night (below normal but...) while areas within 15-20 miles of them were in the low 50's.

I was comparing it to the 90's from the Euro a day or two ago. Its certainly a muggy and less than perfect depiction regardless. Verbatim MDT should go into next week with a departure of negative 1-3 degrees and then it will be a battle to see where it ends by the end of the third week. Probably somewhere between -1 and +1 just using these temps and assuming they are close to being right. There is one day next week where MDT is just barely at 70 at 18Z. Yours would be quite a bit higher verbatim on this run.

I think MDT has quite a bit of Northeastern influence on this run as the 18Z Temps are only above 80 five days the entire run and that includes this Sunday and Monday so only 3 days out of the final 10. It's not chilly though and above normal night time lows especially at the end.