Bubbler86

That is scary. Enough to unweather nut someone and stop wishing for extremes.

At MDT the high temp that month was 42 and you can assume off the summaries that all precip that fell, 1.09" worth, was snow. 11.2" total. 13 days the temp fell below 10 at MDT. Cannot imagine what the real temps were for the out of city folks.

A -8 January. Ouch. That is cold.

Not likely but my interpretation of the last few GFS runs was a a -4 to -6 departure going into the last 7-10 days.

Highs in the 60's for several days would put MDT into the mid negatives even with night time lows not being so low. That would be 10-15 departures for highs. There are 3 on the 6Z GFS for MDT but there were a few more on the 18Z last night.

MLCape is high enough, per AFDs, that there is going to be action this afternoon. If it gets in a line like the Meso's suggest we all should see some or maybe just a few unlucky skip overs.

@Blizzard of 93, the 3K Nam suggests I would get to mow again next weekend.

The GFS is close to be more hot than we want though. So it appears its going to be a close call. GFS would suggest we make a run for -8 Sept Departure.

Little tint of red at the bottom. Red Sky at morning, sailors take warning.

Great pic. Like something you would see on the cover of a book (a book about big rigs in this case by the sky itself).

58 this AM. SPC upped/expended the risk for today. So did the NWS Zones which now say 1-2" of rain for some in the LSV (tonight). 5% tornado is also back to MDT now.

King CMC

18Z GFS... from 6Z Fri the 17th until 18Z Mon the 20th, the temp at MDT stays between 60 and 65 the entire time.

My continued dissection of summer appears to have inadvertently lead you to the wrong thread. Apologies. Lol

It's just an opinion but lines up with the same theory of our world rushing the good seasons like putting out Christmas stuff in Sept and Oct.

Looks like someone "talked" WPC into issuing a FFW for Eastern PA. Throw the science out the window. It's gut feeling time. Just like on these boards, peoples true thoughts come out in seemingly agnostic postings. The AFD writing Met for Phl thinks tomorrow is a big risk day while CTP's met is reaching for the sun screen and thinking its a nothing burger. SPC/WPC continue to place MRGL outlooks for Excessive Rain and SVR over the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA for Wed afternoon and evening, INVOF a nearly north-south lee trough. Marginally stronger llvl winds and vorticity will occur across our mid and upper Susq Mainstem counties where the close proximity of the aforementioned warm front will create a very low prob of a few transient supercells and perhaps an isolated, weak tornado (indicated by PCs inclusion of the 2% risk area over CTP`s eastern zones in their Dye outlook). Heavy rainfall risk is highest well east of my CWA, and WPC was talked into a Day 2 SLGT risk over far eastern PA for Wednesday afternoon/eve.

If you look back at the first Winter 20/21 and Fall 20 thread you will see they both started using the dates Met's use. So I still contend that this is a primarily cold driven board which is fine using Met dates for fall and winter but uses Astro dates for Spring and Summer as sort of a "well if I have to, I have to" way of trying to hang on to Winter and Spring longer.

SPC maps for tomorrow

3:20 PM on Sept. 7th, 2021...paweather has stated that the "Euro stinks". Wanted to make sure I had a searchable time and date stamp on your post :-).

Euro still insisting on extremes next week.

I just realized this thread was not only quite long, it was the longest (reply wise) in the available history of the Upstate NY/PA sub Thread. I say this acknowledging that winter threads used to be split up into months but still an interesting piece of info. Because it was a core group of posters who were here it is no where near the l most read forum just the most replies.

If more than 2 of them gave an accurate number I would be surprised though there are a LOT of hidden weather weenies in the world. But even weather weenies do not keep track of average temps by heart. I suspect at least one of them would say that there is no Dew Point when below freezing...its called the frost point then. :-).

Yes, its all about getting the temp right not playing a 50/50 game of above or below normal. I believe the agencies that rank model scores (though I think they do it more on fronts vs. temps) have different scales to accommodate length of time out into the 15 days and weighing errors appropriately. The only time I would not agree with your first sentence is if winter precip is involved. A winter day where a model suggests 25 and snow but it is 50 and rain is worse (at least to the public view) than a prediction of 40 and rain that turned into 65 and rain.

I agree with your assertion using that data as a basis. Its really hard to pinpoint the 9 out of 15 piece but fairly easy to be confident in taking that data and saying its normal for a lot of Sept days to have DP's into the 60's or higher. Believe the chart suggests that close to half of Sept 7's are above 60 DP.

Personally I would judge on departure from forecast so its a very egregiously bad forecast in your example.