Bubbler86

PS, if you compared the 0Z EC with the 12Z, the trend is for cooler and much cooler a bit north of us (compared to 0Z and especially compared to 12Z yesterday.) One day I think the 18Z Temp at Pitt is down 5-6 degrees.

Yea, that map is a bit confusing as I see the small strip of normal temps and then they are suggesting that a large area is above normal however it is percentage based probability that their call is right. So people see the reds and think the darker the red, the more above normal but a day at MDT where it is 82 and 62 would constitute a red and be in the 60% while a day of 75 and 54 would not necessarily be blue vs. falling into the 40 (or 30) percent of having been forecasted to be red. Its basically a map that says the GFS is below normal and the Euro and CMC are above so we slightly better chance of above.

Unless I am reading the map wrong that is only 60/40, right?

Thanks for sending the pic of your screen saver.

HRRR and 3K really focusing on the second line of showers and convection, overnight, for the LSV. Matches the zones as well.

Your coldinista rankings have probably taken a hit. Ha.

I am not at all questioning your station as you say others are reporting the same. But something is driving it. If you get to 90 you could have close to a double digit temp difference from others in the south part of your county.

Same here. We have elevation though.

The forum heat source!

Check out the prevailing temps in and near the highlighted areas and then look at them outside those areas....even due south into MD. It's still in the 70's in Eden Twp Lanco.

Lots of places on that blob I drew are more rural BUT are south of Harrisburg in some manner. Almost like the typical prevailing winds carry it in a semi circle out from the city for a bit until the effect is lost. Just a thought but its been fairly consistent this summer. Last summer you and I were fairly close on temps but not at all this summer (most days). I only hit 90 one day during the August hot stretch.

Just having been in Palmyra last week I would definitely not consider you part of the 'Burg Metro Hot Zone. Slow goings in town.

Its peculiar and the thing that bothers me is that no model is representing it in any way. The modeled temps all match up well with what is being shown in Franklin, Adams, Central and Southern York, Central and Southern Lancaster, etc....headed for a high today of 83-85. It truly does seem like the people, concrete, and traffic are artificially raising Temps around and slightly to the South of Harrisburg. Its only 81 at my parents house in Valley Green right now. Outside the Harrisburg Metro hot zone apparently.

Might have to consider designating the Low Lands of the LSV area their own microclimate as I saw the comments about mid 80's to 90 today and just came back in from a 78 degree walk out to get the mail. Checked Wunderground and that same area all summer is getting hotter than areas to their North, South, East and West. 78-82 at all reporting stations on the Mason Dixon right now.

That is scary. Enough to unweather nut someone and stop wishing for extremes.

At MDT the high temp that month was 42 and you can assume off the summaries that all precip that fell, 1.09" worth, was snow. 11.2" total. 13 days the temp fell below 10 at MDT. Cannot imagine what the real temps were for the out of city folks.

A -8 January. Ouch. That is cold.

Not likely but my interpretation of the last few GFS runs was a a -4 to -6 departure going into the last 7-10 days.

Highs in the 60's for several days would put MDT into the mid negatives even with night time lows not being so low. That would be 10-15 departures for highs. There are 3 on the 6Z GFS for MDT but there were a few more on the 18Z last night.

MLCape is high enough, per AFDs, that there is going to be action this afternoon. If it gets in a line like the Meso's suggest we all should see some or maybe just a few unlucky skip overs.

@Blizzard of 93, the 3K Nam suggests I would get to mow again next weekend.

The GFS is close to be more hot than we want though. So it appears its going to be a close call. GFS would suggest we make a run for -8 Sept Departure.

Little tint of red at the bottom. Red Sky at morning, sailors take warning.

Great pic. Like something you would see on the cover of a book (a book about big rigs in this case by the sky itself).