Bubbler86

I will take 1/2" every 2-3 days over 2" in a day and nothing for a week.

I would think there is a good chance of rain Thursday night. Even if not heavy/it is just scattered. We got 1" of rain Sunday and already have to water the plants and veggies (potted and in ground) so it will be welcome if we can get some. Grass is more resilient and would be good until Thursday.

There is a piece of energy progged to move near PA Thursday night. Nam and Icon would give the LSV heavy rain, GFS a bit North in the MSV and CMC farther north than the GFS.

57 for the low this Am. Pretty nice.

Ha. I was more or less joking about how things can change fast. But I hope no one goes dry for two weeks in July.

I know it is hard to fathom but I think if you got no rain for 2 weeks, with this sun, your creeks would be drying up and the ground would be dust.

Dude went on a "pay or burn" rampage through many towns out here and Western Md.

Surprised no one with a city as big as C-Burg.

How much is the pay? :-)

I saw a 4+" total in Northern York County on Coco. I rarely see any Franklin county totals on Cocorahs for whatever reason.

59 for the low this AM. Up to 64 now.

You headed down to D1? I say yes.

If you saw that Michaux brew pic I put up, over a single mile it went from Florida monsoon to me standing there dry in Rouville. It rained a good hour plus about 2" one mile west from there with no rain in. that locale. Then the rain that did eventually get here, never really went past Blue Ridge just to the east.

It helps keep Blizz on his toes when I post about it :-). On your point, just the orientation of the precip with WAA is usually SW to NE where as many of these convection based events either have little steering flow or go straight west to east. Both of the later will be more profoundly affected by Leeward Rain Shadow issues. Take today, the rain over Waynesboro formed right over the area so no chance for it to dry out entering the valley...but look who did not do well? The people immediately Leeward of my ridge.

I have been here 5.5 years so only have that much history but my neighbor, a farmer, says we are in a permanent summer drought. The farmer warned be about the Great Valley and how it will rob near obvious rain every summer and he was pretty spot on. See map below. The rain shadow effect as you call it. My closest NWS Station does average about 9" LESS of precip per year than MDT does but I have found I almost always outpace them in the winter because of the high propensity of non-convection-based systems pushing WAA in from the SW. Being on the windward side of the mountain, the rain/snow is wrung out over my rapidly rising elevation. The Great Valley has much less of an effect on non-convection forcing qpf. So, it is fairly rare when we get a WAA event from the SW that I get less qpf than MDT. Usually, it is more. I think overall I average about 2-3" less qpf than MDT over a year....more in the winter and less in the summer.

Here is a piping hot cup of Indiana for you. Two areas where D2 abnd bno drought are a county or two apart. Also, a D3 to no drought over a couple counties in Missouri.

I have a contact at the USGS and internally they rate small areas differently than what you see on the weekly map re: my area is actually D2 right now, but they cannot have chicken pox like variances on the maps. I am surprised they have that small blotch of D1 in between the D2 LSV areas as it is now. So, I am sure they have D2 to no drought internally over very short distances, but it has been rare to never that I have seen it in PA on the weeklies. At one point in 2020 I was 11" below normal for a four-month period while Harrisburg was renting Kayaks on Front Street. I did a Photoshop of Canderson riding the rapids in Harrisburg. That Spring and Summer I had a total ~2" of rain for most of April, May, June and July. I do not keep records like many here but I think I had no events over 1/4" over that approx 120 day span. So, we had the D2 50 miles from no drought scenario.

As you have done before, it is important to look at it over a longer-term view. Much of the area around Harrisburg does not have that large of a yearly deficit now but some of the more southern stations could get 1" a week and still be near double digit deficits yearly at the end of 4 weeks. With my near 1" today that gives me 2.8" in the last ~4 weeks meaning I am about 1" further in the hole now than I was on June 12th.

The link I have to Big Money's gear does not show precip so he will have to chip in.

Much of Adams and some parts of York County did not (as of 30-45 min ago.)

I had posted the very low levels of the local creek yesterday. This goes through the East Side of Waynesboro so saw 1.5"-2" totals and it only put a 1-1 1/2 foot rise in the depth and is already on its way down.

The thing about those is 3-4 sips and they are gone.

The radar never really filled in over much of central Adams.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kmdt

It only rained hard here for about 30-40 min so we did not get 1.5'. Any wunderground or other reports out of West Wanynesboro that are under 3" are faulty. Most of that area had 1-2" or higher rates for over 120 min. I have one 5.2" reading and one 4.6"