Bubbler86

Our FFW has expired so want am I to do with all theses animals that came in 2's?

Up to .03. Going to round up to 2.85 in the last 37-38 days.

If at first it does not succeed, try, try again. Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 220 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 PAZ042-046-051>053-057>059-065-066-161430- /O.EXT.KCTP.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-230717T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Sunbury, Pottsville, Lancaster, Berwick, Bloomsburg, Harrisburg, Williamsport, York, Shamokin, Lebanon, Laporte, Hershey, and Danville 220 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall will be possible again this afternoon. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Columbia, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Montour, Northumberland, Schuylkill, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan and York. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - While the heavy rain is ending for the next several hours, additional thunderstorms this afternoon will make it possible for flash flooding to occur. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Dangelo

Going to round up and go with .02. 3K Nam and HRRR both show what may be a better chance of rain this afternoon for here than the HRRR showed for last night. Almost daily rain chances on the GFS and CMC all week so hopefully will get one of those chances.

Going to need something to "pop" over me otherwise the split is in. I bet if you look at meso maps there is an area devoid of lift in the precip headed toward me but....some suites fire up cells around here between 10 and 1 so will wait until tomorrow am and may be pleasantly surprised.

Honey based wine/beer hybrid and can have similar abv to grape based wine even to the level of port and sherry for some big dog meads.

In defense of the HRRR, this is a pretty spot on depiction of the current radar so initializing is not an issue even if it ultimately is very wrong.

I put FF Watches on the same level as Tornado watches. Nothing is imminent but watch the sky. I think being night makes it something to consider as well re: driving into water that you cannot see.

It is very dark to my west right now. I really need a rainer tonight....1/2" is perfectly fine. Paw Paw taking it on the chops but all that stuff would life west of me, going to need to development to the South and East.

True, just nothing except the Nam 12 shows heavy rain west of the Susky (that I could find). (Edit, the FV3 looks similar to the Nam, did not check that before).

I think their AFD is a bit wishy washy which is fine...they say there is a chance due to the pwats but are also saying..."Eh, the flash flood values are a bit high". I do not blame them but still really question whether we get an area wide flooder. But once I saw the FFW I went right to the HRRR and it still did not look impressive. It is not just simple qpf values on the HRRR, the prog moves the greatest potential around the LSV. Good discussion and interesting to watch either way.

There is no model that I saw, except the Nam 12, that shows heavy rain west of the Susky and most not even east until you get far east near Philly. Rgem has heavy rain in Lanco. Even the Rap has jumped ship on excessive rain. Both the Rap and HRRR move that inital shield on radar north of the LSV. But it is convection so who knows. They could be spot on at the NWS.

8" in one storm would help the creeks and ground water. Would not make a difference to the vegetation. 1" is the same as 8" to the green stuff. It rained about 1" here on Sunday and if I mowed right now it would be a dust bowl.

Our first 90 is in the books...90 on the dot. Edit-Just opened the mail and we are under voluntary water restrictions. No after 10AM outdoor water use (car washes, watering, etc)

Late nooners in emmitsburg MD. 89 and considerable cloudiness.

Storms and rumors of storms. El Nina and La Nino warning.

It is convection so none of them beyond some interesting model discussion. I think there are too many with questionable precip profiles to assume we have an area wide slam dunk tonight. Remember we had a Meso Analysis circle over us a few days ago (I think you posted actually) and only a small strip from Hershey to Myra were the ones that I remember seeing anything.

Just popped up the Euro for the first time in ages....it is mostly dry through Monday.

Model wise, the Rgem is the only "major meso model" that shows excessive rain near you. It is convection though (even at night) so just using the models mostly for timing discussion. Each suite is pretty unique. Fv3 is a shutout for East LSV. The Fv3 is supposed to be America's new main Meso.

There are some suites that have very little rain tonight. Rgem looks like a bigger event where a front takes advantage of moisture laden air but here is the 3K through this time tomorrow. Most suites have 1/2" -3/4" maxes.

Latest HRRR has an eastern LSV winner run for late night tonight. Line forms near the Susky.

"You got gas to drive to Furnace creek, right? "What, no I thought you got gas!"

62 this Am.....