Bubbler86

I think their AFD is a bit wishy washy which is fine...they say there is a chance due to the pwats but are also saying..."Eh, the flash flood values are a bit high". I do not blame them but still really question whether we get an area wide flooder. But once I saw the FFW I went right to the HRRR and it still did not look impressive. It is not just simple qpf values on the HRRR, the prog moves the greatest potential around the LSV. Good discussion and interesting to watch either way.

There is no model that I saw, except the Nam 12, that shows heavy rain west of the Susky and most not even east until you get far east near Philly. Rgem has heavy rain in Lanco. Even the Rap has jumped ship on excessive rain. Both the Rap and HRRR move that inital shield on radar north of the LSV. But it is convection so who knows. They could be spot on at the NWS.

8" in one storm would help the creeks and ground water. Would not make a difference to the vegetation. 1" is the same as 8" to the green stuff. It rained about 1" here on Sunday and if I mowed right now it would be a dust bowl.

Our first 90 is in the books...90 on the dot. Edit-Just opened the mail and we are under voluntary water restrictions. No after 10AM outdoor water use (car washes, watering, etc)

Late nooners in emmitsburg MD. 89 and considerable cloudiness.

Storms and rumors of storms. El Nina and La Nino warning.

It is convection so none of them beyond some interesting model discussion. I think there are too many with questionable precip profiles to assume we have an area wide slam dunk tonight. Remember we had a Meso Analysis circle over us a few days ago (I think you posted actually) and only a small strip from Hershey to Myra were the ones that I remember seeing anything.

Just popped up the Euro for the first time in ages....it is mostly dry through Monday.

Model wise, the Rgem is the only "major meso model" that shows excessive rain near you. It is convection though (even at night) so just using the models mostly for timing discussion. Each suite is pretty unique. Fv3 is a shutout for East LSV. The Fv3 is supposed to be America's new main Meso.

There are some suites that have very little rain tonight. Rgem looks like a bigger event where a front takes advantage of moisture laden air but here is the 3K through this time tomorrow. Most suites have 1/2" -3/4" maxes.

Latest HRRR has an eastern LSV winner run for late night tonight. Line forms near the Susky.

"You got gas to drive to Furnace creek, right? "What, no I thought you got gas!"

62 this Am.....

It is a theme that runs well past this year. Congrats on two hits today! Lol. Drought over!

I did not even realize it was raining over there. You have left the drought club.

18Z Suite really likes good chances of rain for many during the dark hours of Sunday Am.

It was plenty humid in the 80's and 90's. I am definitely on the train that it is hotter now, but it was never (in modern times) 75/55 all summer here. Some people will not live here because of the humidity. Case in point, here is 1988 which is a random 80's date I picked. Great summer weather for a few days then MUCH worse than anything we have experienced this year. Frying Panel/Hell weather. The Low stayed 66 and above 24 days. We are literally living a cream puff summer compared to this month. 15 of the 31 highs below are higher than the high so far this July at MDT. The thing that really sends home the point, the highest Average temp this month so far has been 82.5. 10 days below exceed that number with a peak of 87...think of that, an average temp for the day of 87 which is the "normal high" for the day!!

We were T'ed up.

Yea, historically this July has not been cool per the data you posted. People have been conditioned to accept minor victories at this point. Plus, the coolish June is making July seem worse IMO.

That is good data. Drumming the same beat as some other discussions the last few years...the lows are the devil in the detail. MDT's max so far this July is only 92.

I stink!

84 in the Ville. Getting dark to the west.

We have not had that since I came back 5 years ago, agreed. Cooler mid-summer days are usually humid and wet recently. I just scanned back to 2019 and did not see any days in Jul. or Aug of 19-22 where the highs were in the 70's without precip and warm lows (re: cloud/rain caused).