Bubbler86

Here is the smoothed over departures from averages per county...prior to last night.

Got about .45" of rain here with most of it coming from the blob of rain that passed over well past the line of storms. Top wind gust was 40 almost matching the top gust at MDT which was 43. Top sustained reading on the 5 min output at MDT was 33. CXY top gust was 37 on the 5 min records. The HRRR did a better job than the Nam and Rgem with the eventual track and length of the storm line. A very refreshing 57 here.

At least snowstorms are more synoptic....but the last two runs of most models have been "not good" for the LSV for those wanting rain.

The Meso's are even less with their non smoothed precip maps.

GFS joins the gang almost totally skipping the central and Southern LSV tonight. Models can be wrong but terrible trends for those wanting rain.

18Z Rgem and Nam (both of them) is a total miss tonight for the central and southern LSV except Lanco for the second line.

Lot of cooler nights coming up (modeled) may pull some of those numbers back a bit. I expect to see some non HIA lows in the 40's in N PA.

And Shrewsbury. Every time I look at the radar and rain is around YorCo, it targets there. Signed-Bub in FranCo

GFS still not overly enthusiastic about Monday. More focus on Tue as to storms/convection.

Now to get Hollywood back to work.

FedEx is training their workers/drivers to handle themselves if called scabs by striking UPS employees. I doubt they go on strike either but would be big if they did.

Broadway shut down again? https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/20/business/broadway-strike/index.html

Model trust....which model does every one check first as the one they trust the most say for mid-term weather or short-term? I just went to look for the DP's on Sunday and I go to the GFS just out of habit. If it was for Friday, I would pick the HRRR. I like the Nam but mostly for stormy situations. It is too cool with nice day temps. So, for me, I go to the GFS midterm and HRR for under 24 hours. Rarely check the Euro anymore.

Welcome to D0!

With the ULL spinning to our north I say you are probably good but should keep the stink eye to your NE. The HRRR. RRFS and WRF also develop a scattered line of storms that goes through or near Lanco around lunch.

USGS pointing out that some farmers are going to lose their corn. Northeast Drought Summary Heavy rains again soaked much of the Northeast Region last week. Very little dryness remains to the east of a line from the Chesapeake Bay to the east shore of Lake Ontario, with D1 confined to a few spots in south New Jersey and in part of the New York City metro. Heavy rains in the central Appalachians have also nearly eliminated dryness in West Virginia. But large dry areas persist from northern Virginia and Maryland northward through western sections of Pennsylvania and New York, with severe drought (D2) covering central Maryland and adjacent south-central Pennsylvania. According to USDA, 33 percent of pastures in Maine are in poor or very poor condition, as are 16 percent of Pennsylvania’s pastureland. Full Summary

I have this hanging in my place...confounds people when they look at it as it is hard to read a map with this orientation as well as minimizing many of the big LSV cities. I find that focusing on the M/D line helps me with orientation a bit when looking at it. I love old man winter blowing winds from the NE and South.

I doubt it being on the line between D1 and D0 last time, but the area is bigger than 2020. Most of Central MD especially to my South and Southeast are in the same boat. Some of them were D2 last week.

Those 2-4" progs North of Harrisburg would cause flooding with the amounts of rain they have already had. Think you will still be in a drought (D0) on the map this AM? I think D1 for my area though it is really D2 or D3 within my small area. I am over 10" behind for the year now. 2-3" behind for June and July alone.

There are some others which have nothing in your area. One had 4-6" just east of Harrisburg. A forecasting mess.

According to multiple mesos and globals, some areas north of Harrisburg to the NY line could see 2-4" in the next 24 hours.

I hate when we cannot trust radar. The dbz's over maytown were fairly impressive. But the radar illusions/issues have been more than just a few times recently.

Radar shows you getting into the rain now? I have a reading of over 1" just east of York.

Central Eastern York County is getting drenched. FFW?

Safe travels. Heads up Harrisburg.