Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Canderson is attending a concert out there next weekend so hopefully it dodges his area.
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Several suites, mesos and global, have some decent cells in or near the LSV tomorrow afternoon. Has not been talked about much. Zones are ignoring.
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Windows open 55 this Am. Smattering of 40's along the Northern Tier.
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Mow # 10 is a mere moment away.... probably the last one for the month. @Jns2183 all 3 main globals show the heat breaking after Friday with no extreme temps Sat.
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Euro closely matches the other two globals with the peak of next week's heat being Fri before the highs drop due to a front/rain and a trough backing in from the East over the weekend.
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Since Aug 2016 for alone in first. The Yanks are doing well taking themselves down.
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Not worth too much dissection but the LR GFS goes norm or below after this VERY hot day next week...including a partly cloudy day with highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's and 50's. 300 temp maps will change a lot of times between now and then, but a trough backs in from the Atlantic to squash the heat wave here. CMC supports it through the 10-day run. Also, a 'Cane hitting NO/LA at day 9.
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Showers popping up just west of the LSV.
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I agree that the heat is definitely normalized. The adjustment of the 30-year norms also hides or normalizes things a bit. MDT is only 1.7 AN right now for July but 30 years ago it would have been a higher departure.
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Let's enjoy what we have now then I guess. 73 and mostly cloudy nooners.... MDT running a not too crazy 1.7 AN at this point. That will go back a bit the next few days.
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Weekends for many people Weekends for other people
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Would be hard to pick a better late July evening to do it...at least weatherwise.
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12Z HRRR has some scattered tack on showers for the Central and Eastern LSV this afternoon going into this evening then a Chamber Day tomorrow. Highs near 80 in the LSV with DP's 50-55 in the afternoon. Still a signal for some upper 40's near the NY border tomorrow AM.
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Using WU as a guide, totals in NE PA were indeed lower than some of the earlier looks on models. Lots of near or even under 1/2" reports.
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Here is the smoothed over departures from averages per county...prior to last night.
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Got about .45" of rain here with most of it coming from the blob of rain that passed over well past the line of storms. Top wind gust was 40 almost matching the top gust at MDT which was 43. Top sustained reading on the 5 min output at MDT was 33. CXY top gust was 37 on the 5 min records. The HRRR did a better job than the Nam and Rgem with the eventual track and length of the storm line. A very refreshing 57 here.
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At least snowstorms are more synoptic....but the last two runs of most models have been "not good" for the LSV for those wanting rain.
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The Meso's are even less with their non smoothed precip maps.
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GFS joins the gang almost totally skipping the central and Southern LSV tonight. Models can be wrong but terrible trends for those wanting rain.
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18Z Rgem and Nam (both of them) is a total miss tonight for the central and southern LSV except Lanco for the second line.
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Lot of cooler nights coming up (modeled) may pull some of those numbers back a bit. I expect to see some non HIA lows in the 40's in N PA.
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And Shrewsbury. Every time I look at the radar and rain is around YorCo, it targets there. Signed-Bub in FranCo
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GFS still not overly enthusiastic about Monday. More focus on Tue as to storms/convection.
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Now to get Hollywood back to work.
