Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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That Euro scenario would produce a large area of freeze warnings for Florida, Ga, Ala, and the Carolinas. I could see some single digits in PA. Map stolen from the MA for @canderson fresh off the presses from the BBC-UK-BennyHill weather service.
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It is sending the 540 line to Dixie but the alignment does not work out and the cold air is so limited vs. creeping just above us.
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Monster
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Early 12Z Globals wrapped up in a picture. 34 and breezy at noon.
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I figured that panel was after you saw. For shits. I trust this TT map as there is not much ice:
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Wow.
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How much did MJS pay for that promotion?
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CMC has some Tue Am mischief for the eastern LSV as energy from the second coastal seems to interact with the cold front from the first storm. GFS still blocking/backing in the second coastal.
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I wonder if it keeps the storm early next week an App runner. Everyone has been banging the drum for a coastal. (It switched back to a coastal)
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The only real warm I see on the entire GFS run is when we are on the wrong side of that low this weekend...inland runner on 6Z. A lot of days are somewhat AN just not warm IMO. Lot's of low to mid 40's and 20's with a handful of days staying in the 30's for highs. Chilly Pacific Puke after the colder period early next week.
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CMC and GFS have temps well BN post this early week storm. Tue the CMC stays near freezing for a high with lows well into the teens area wide. Combo of the flow from the departing low and a high coming in from Canada tapping some of the coldest air on this side of the globe. Coldest period of the season so far as modeled. May not be vodka cold but no torch is something.
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It dropped to 16 before starting to rise again. Elevation finally scored me a W on temps. 23 at 9AM. Lowest temp of the season so far. Meanwhile HGR was near 30.
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He is not wrong.
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Just for fun
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Quite a few teens out there. See a 16 in York county. Not sure that is legit but lots of 18's and 19's.
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18 this AM.
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Remember that some of Europe names high pressure systems. That sounds....boring.
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Interesting info I just saw in the MA. high risk Meteorologist The GEFS was indeed upgraded to use the FV3 core in 2020! https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/ It doesn't, however, have the changes that were made to the GFS in Version 16 in 2021.
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Time for a cold one, eh?
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That is a whole bunch of reading between the lines. LOL.
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Definitely thought provoking. If he said no arctic air in the first sentence, then I am down with that. But I think there is a decent chance MU gets below 25 more than one more time this month. The NWS Zone forecast for MU tonight is 24. But yea, saying cold vs. AN does change the perspective. To me, 25 or 30 is cold any day. Mild would be 38, 40ish or above for lows right now. This is similar to the "what is a heatwave" discussion.
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I guess one might ask what cold air means? If it means no lows in the 20's then I say this has little chance of being correct. If it means no cold air timing moisture, then yea definitely a possibility (no snow.) If I were MU's professor, I would fail him on this statement because 30 is cold no matter what time of the year, IMO. Patience is also allowing for people to misspell virtue. LOL
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12Z GFS op still have some stuff to watch. It is changing so much run to run I am not going to put too much effort in it but has cold air chasing the big storm Mon/Tue (too late for LSV) then said storm is back to looping up and try to pull somewhat cold air back down over us Christmas Eve. Certainly not great panels but still in play.
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It is indeed a "not comfortable" 40's out. Just stepped out and did not have a coat on.
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We have reached the point where that is almost normal.
