Bubbler86

Time for a cold one, eh?

That is a whole bunch of reading between the lines. LOL.

Definitely thought provoking. If he said no arctic air in the first sentence, then I am down with that. But I think there is a decent chance MU gets below 25 more than one more time this month. The NWS Zone forecast for MU tonight is 24. But yea, saying cold vs. AN does change the perspective. To me, 25 or 30 is cold any day. Mild would be 38, 40ish or above for lows right now. This is similar to the "what is a heatwave" discussion.

I guess one might ask what cold air means? If it means no lows in the 20's then I say this has little chance of being correct. If it means no cold air timing moisture, then yea definitely a possibility (no snow.) If I were MU's professor, I would fail him on this statement because 30 is cold no matter what time of the year, IMO. Patience is also allowing for people to misspell virtue. LOL

12Z GFS op still have some stuff to watch. It is changing so much run to run I am not going to put too much effort in it but has cold air chasing the big storm Mon/Tue (too late for LSV) then said storm is back to looping up and try to pull somewhat cold air back down over us Christmas Eve. Certainly not great panels but still in play.

It is indeed a "not comfortable" 40's out. Just stepped out and did not have a coat on.

We have reached the point where that is almost normal.

Eb nooners. 41 and Mostly Sunny.

32 for the low this Am. Up to 34 now.

I think most of us are down with the pattern not being great for 2-3 weeks but we are playing with the hopes (fantasy?) of a lucky break and perfect timing during a not-so-great pattern.

The model PBP is still fun to discuss (when I have time, unlike today). I like that you seem to be a PBP type as well :-)

In this case I was sort of picking it up from this point forward and generally commenting that it may be too soon to punt the next 3 weeks.

Low Lander snow before January? I thought that was not a possibility? :-)

Sarcasm noted but I would be up for moving from MDT. How does an area that is landlocked, CTP, have one of their official stations surrounded by water on 3 sides?

Sure. That is why model breakdowns should be taken as model break downs and not forecasts.

Well on the latest GFS it is gone. The storm mentioned today is off the SE Coast. Next Monday. Just thought it ironic that happens after the discussion earlier. Model PBP is a waste sometimes.

Shockingly the 18Z GFS does not develop the late week storm as the 12Z did, sends it out to sea which removes the 50/50 low from the equation, and all the analysis of the 12Z is a waste as the cold source tapped at 12Z is gone.

On the op GFS, that 3-5 days before Christmas period was really the only period between now and Christmas that I could see much of any chance for temps to be cold enough for any winter weather. Fully agree, there is no true arctic air in the near or mid future as modeled. The rest of Dec is a beggars can't be choosers/thread the needle hope. Also agree the system a few days before is a no go from the start for most of PA.

No blow torches but probably some AN days and some BN normal days which would all equate to normal indeed if it came to fruition. Cannot put too much weight in a 200+ hour OP map but it at least lends itself to keeping the blinds clean.

Both the GFS and CMC Op's have enough cold air 4-6 days before Christmas to at least avoid shitting the blinds for now. They get there different ways though so not much confidence. GFS has a 50/50 Low (or close to it) which would usher in a cold rush.

@Blizzard of 93, here is one for you to file in your template folder for future posts.... just change acronyms to CXY and MDT and city/area names to Harrisburg and West Shore and you are ready to go! :-)

No room for it to develop but at least the cold is in place.

A not-so-great December should not be a judge for the whole winter so surprised if he is panicking at all. In recent years we have had quite a few instances of great patterns never making it past day 10 so I do totally understand the penchant for some to assume a negative stance until the snow is falling (after the last several years) but even if Dec does end up veering toward AN/no snow, we have 2/3 of winter left to go. Canderson not here so not much talk about it but keep seeing warnings about high winds today. The HRRR is not showing anything to the level of the stuff I read.

He must have been viewing the MA LR discussion yesterday.

Snowing again right now....streamer made it all the way down here.