Bubbler86

Eb nooners. 41 and Mostly Sunny.

32 for the low this Am. Up to 34 now.

I think most of us are down with the pattern not being great for 2-3 weeks but we are playing with the hopes (fantasy?) of a lucky break and perfect timing during a not-so-great pattern.

The model PBP is still fun to discuss (when I have time, unlike today). I like that you seem to be a PBP type as well :-)

In this case I was sort of picking it up from this point forward and generally commenting that it may be too soon to punt the next 3 weeks.

Low Lander snow before January? I thought that was not a possibility? :-)

Sarcasm noted but I would be up for moving from MDT. How does an area that is landlocked, CTP, have one of their official stations surrounded by water on 3 sides?

Sure. That is why model breakdowns should be taken as model break downs and not forecasts.

Well on the latest GFS it is gone. The storm mentioned today is off the SE Coast. Next Monday. Just thought it ironic that happens after the discussion earlier. Model PBP is a waste sometimes.

Shockingly the 18Z GFS does not develop the late week storm as the 12Z did, sends it out to sea which removes the 50/50 low from the equation, and all the analysis of the 12Z is a waste as the cold source tapped at 12Z is gone.

On the op GFS, that 3-5 days before Christmas period was really the only period between now and Christmas that I could see much of any chance for temps to be cold enough for any winter weather. Fully agree, there is no true arctic air in the near or mid future as modeled. The rest of Dec is a beggars can't be choosers/thread the needle hope. Also agree the system a few days before is a no go from the start for most of PA.

No blow torches but probably some AN days and some BN normal days which would all equate to normal indeed if it came to fruition. Cannot put too much weight in a 200+ hour OP map but it at least lends itself to keeping the blinds clean.

Both the GFS and CMC Op's have enough cold air 4-6 days before Christmas to at least avoid shitting the blinds for now. They get there different ways though so not much confidence. GFS has a 50/50 Low (or close to it) which would usher in a cold rush.

@Blizzard of 93, here is one for you to file in your template folder for future posts.... just change acronyms to CXY and MDT and city/area names to Harrisburg and West Shore and you are ready to go! :-)

No room for it to develop but at least the cold is in place.

A not-so-great December should not be a judge for the whole winter so surprised if he is panicking at all. In recent years we have had quite a few instances of great patterns never making it past day 10 so I do totally understand the penchant for some to assume a negative stance until the snow is falling (after the last several years) but even if Dec does end up veering toward AN/no snow, we have 2/3 of winter left to go. Canderson not here so not much talk about it but keep seeing warnings about high winds today. The HRRR is not showing anything to the level of the stuff I read.

He must have been viewing the MA LR discussion yesterday.

Snowing again right now....streamer made it all the way down here.

One of the met's in the MA thread estimated the snow was 3:1. If so, the Kuch maps were too high.

That was a hail mary that did not work out. ha. Not cancelling anything. Seriously, the lack of cold air is a real hinderance to having any chance of identifying threats very far out. The GFS has a low take a great track in 7 days and it is rain everywhere except far North New England. Track will be different in a few hours but not sure there will be any more cold air to work with. No obvious frying pan periods either...just a bit AN.

Ha, we literally posted at the same time.

@Chris78 how much did you get? About 2.5" more just up from us. Elevation ...Washington County... Sabillasville 2 NNW 3.5 629 AM 12/11 CoCoRaHS

That is a very cool pic, thanks!

So long, farewell, auf Wiedersehen, adieuAdieu, adieu, to yieu and yieu and yieu One thing I am seeing in reports is that the models showing a bonus area in N Central MD got their wish. PSU got 4" and saw another report of over 3".