Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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34 and nice paste coasting here. About 1" on some hard wood surfaces. A bit higher in grass but not going to count that. No street accums.
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34 and mixed precip.
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Saw mention on the MA thread and can confirm that the web cams at Ski Liberty (Fairfield) are showing snow at the base of the main slope. Still a lot of rain mixed in here.
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This line is well past me now so maybe can surmise it was seeing snow or sleet above but still not cold enough just above the surface for a full change. SPC Meso 850 line is very close to me but 925 is not.
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Down to 36 now. I just looked again and it is still mostly rain.
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815ish. It is still mostly rain but I have a snow light so can see larger flakes going by. Very much based on intensity I am sure.
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Some mangled flakes mixing in here now. 38 degrees.
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The isobars have really elongated to our east with two areas of frontogenesis now...one where we saw it before off the NC coast and one slightly below this circle and dry slot so the slp is probably in this general area.
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It did close. Thinking about it, maybe that was before you moved up here so that makes more sense. I bought some stuff from their auction. Not a fan of their location though as to pass by traffic. So many coming east turn at the circle in New Oxford and skip cross keys.
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I thought you were going to saw you are retired and do not want to spend the cash on the premium site! Ps, never been to cross keys diner? How? Lol
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Do you have a sub to one of the model sites? Will be helpful if you do :-). Blizz's work gets in the way during the day.
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The radar is blossoming nicely in central VA. May be a bit too far east for me but someone is going to get a lot of precip.
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This was the thought of my post (someone did say past beginning of Jan) in chuckling that there was panic of the pattern not changing at Christmas. I disagree with the panic just based on everyone's current penchant to feel cautious when times are good but easily turning negative when things start can kicking. With that said, recently there were posts (EPS I think) showing a sweet pattern Christmas week and starting to feel we are losing hope on that.
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Down to 45 here as the temps continue to march down. 14 degree drop in 3-4 hours.
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Defintely can be thunderstorms which is why I threw some question in but I enjoy watching for busts (good or bad.). There is not a lot forcing in other areas as of yet though. As you know said thunderstorms can also limit blossoming to the west. The cold at the surface is still my worry. I truly think accum snow is going to be whomever gets under a band that overcomes the surface.
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Looking at this map, one would think the trailing slp is developing a bit father east than some meso's showed. This can sometimes be off from actual sw positions though.
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Gotcha, I thought you meant 4 weeks out. I am just reporting what I read over there.
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Week 4 would be Mid Jan. I am not a big believer in getting worked up (to the positive or negative) on ensemble patterns as they change too often but there is at least a whole page of downer talk over there. It surprised me as I had not checked in for a few days.
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I am not going to quote it as it would embarrass the poster which is quite respected over there.
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A week ago, the pattern for Christmas looked cold and primed.
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Actually they are. I do not agree with it.
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The MA LR thread is quite "sad". The op GFS run today was super ugly but people punting into Mid Jan now based on ensemble patterns.
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Down to 52 here after a peak of 59. LNS got to 61 or 60. Another story here, mentioned by JNS I think, is the somewhat paltry totals after having flood watches. So far, we have had about 1/2" and MDT about .30 but it has been a slog to get there.
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Nam vacillated back to a much more impressive presentation in the cold sector precip for tonight. One of its better snow runs as temps are just 1-2 above freezing when snowing. 3K improved as well but quite elevation dependent. The resulting snow depths are nowhere near this good but at this stage it is "take what you can."
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Many LSV locations have done a pretty good job at holding temps down this weekend. Modeled too high by most suites. CXY is up to 53.
