Bubbler86
-
Posts
29,682 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Bubbler86
-
I am not going to quote it as it would embarrass the poster which is quite respected over there.
-
A week ago, the pattern for Christmas looked cold and primed.
-
Actually they are. I do not agree with it.
-
The MA LR thread is quite "sad". The op GFS run today was super ugly but people punting into Mid Jan now based on ensemble patterns.
-
Down to 52 here after a peak of 59. LNS got to 61 or 60. Another story here, mentioned by JNS I think, is the somewhat paltry totals after having flood watches. So far, we have had about 1/2" and MDT about .30 but it has been a slog to get there.
-
Nam vacillated back to a much more impressive presentation in the cold sector precip for tonight. One of its better snow runs as temps are just 1-2 above freezing when snowing. 3K improved as well but quite elevation dependent. The resulting snow depths are nowhere near this good but at this stage it is "take what you can."
-
Many LSV locations have done a pretty good job at holding temps down this weekend. Modeled too high by most suites. CXY is up to 53.
-
LNS is at 59 or 60.
-
The nam did a good job forecasting that leading up to this weekend. Never showed the Lsv breaking into the mid to upper 50's until today. No valley here to get socked in.
-
Late nooners....sun poking out and 58. Time to get chores done before the next round arrives.
-
Break in the rain here. Temp has jumped to 55. Getting close to 60 in southern Lanco. 12Z GFS has that same Southern York or Lanco bullseye seen in several mesos.
-
Totally agreed. Seeing so many suites not showing wide scale accum snow this AM really made me hold back enthusiasm. So now we have several mesos with minor bullseyes in Lanco and/or south York. Do we settle there?
-
It also seemed to be faster/further N at the same intervals in comparison to previous runs. Either way it is too warm at the surface out this way.
-
Hoping the EE is the right. My view of the snow maps is a signal for elevation dependance. The new HRRR really has that look.
-
The GFS does not show a couple inches anywhere in the LSV on most models sites. Neither does the RGEM and some of the other mesos. (Not on Kuch at least.) The Fv3 is targeted to be the replacement this time next year.
-
48 and wet here this AM. Still torn on the snow as a lot of suites, both global and not, are just elevation accums out this way.... and above my elevation in the 800's. Surprised to see the large deviations this close. The NAM replacement is nothing for most of PA (Fv3).
-
I was in WV most of the day but it was sunny here all day from what I saw. HGR only hit 48 but we were near 60 down in Martinsburg so the higher elevations turned on the fryer which happens oh so often with SW winds. It is 47 here right now which is 8 higher than MDT and HGR. Elevation is so very overrated sometimes. When that warm air is pouring in from the south it gets here before the lower elevations like HGR.
-
56 for the high in Rou today. Still 53 right now.
-
Nooners in Martinsburg WV. 54 and partly sunny.
-
"It's just allergies"
-
NWS as a SWS for it. We are bright and sunny over here.
-
MDT (you can't spell MDT without a "T") stands at 1.7 AN avg temp wise as we near closing out the first 1/3 of the month. With AN days expected the next 2, a double digit AN possible tomorrow, it may be 2 AN as we head into day 11.
-
Snowing Christmas day (any major accums) is not ideal. Let's get it on the ground a few days before.
-
The GFS took a step up/in the right direction with similar totals as the Nam now. Not going to post a 10-1 map when the surface is in the mid to upper 30's in the LSV. The only reason the snow is making it down is intensity so it's not going to accum at 10-1. Skew-T shows it above freezing up to about 925. 850 is well below freezing.
-
6z Nam drops off the cliff again cutting 0z totals in half or more. Really struggling with this one though still wants to target Mt Psu. Looking at those 0Z maps would have been exciting last night, wished I would not have missed it. 40 on the dot this AM.
