Bubbler86

It is all good. On the MA LR thread they are excited again about after Jan 1 based on pattern recognition of the ensembles. GFS OP just not showing it yet. We can have good 500H looks with surface temps that are too warm or the reverse where we snow on a bad look. That map I posted the other day with the 540 Line near Valdosta GA and temps just near freezing here is a good example. But, fairly confident next week is not going to be cold at all. We got our Dec cold this week. It is still only 25 here.

Yea, on the 6Z. Eastern side of the country is evacuated of BN temps on the 27th. Not a torch either, just mild. Colder air works in after Jan 1 but only for a few days as it looks transient. Highs in the mid 40's Jan 4th. Just a LR PBP on an Op model, not a forecast.

Several 50's on the GFS for post-Christmas week into New Year Day so if that is close, it will probably rise indeed...from the current 3.2.

GFS. It has been jumping all over the place though...a lot of vorts and it keeps changing which one to focus on.

It is still 19 at THV. LOL. Meanwhile MDT never got below 29.

Despite the colder weather this week so far, MDT stands at a healthy 3.2AN departure for the months as to temps. 14 of the 19 days have been above normal with the 17th and 18th being double digits AN. Not much chance of paring down that departure to anywhere near normal over the last 11 days.

It is a bit nipply out.

A lot of teens in York and Adams county as well. Rgem nailed it for colder spots west of the susky. Rgem has you near 15 Fri AM.

A wintery 18 this Am.

That is the one. The one I posted a couple years ago. LSV plowable.

https://fb.watch/p1Csp1KKh-/ We may have to redefine what a plowable snow is.

12Z GFS....New Years Eve, Eve. Paweather 540 line is near the Florida border, yet this is the extent of the cold at the surface.

On and off Lt snow/flurries here as well. 33 which is the high so far today. Stayed at 32 from midnight on until we just went up a degree. Been a while since we had a day staying near freezing.

Rgem sticking to its guns for a rapid drop Thursday night....other suites not on board to this extent though Nam is near 20 on many areas of the LSV. At least something of interest to watch evolve. 12 near ITT.

MDT has a T on their records for the day :-)

MDT has been falling slowly all morning. They were near 40, now down to 37. Stuck on 32 here.

You have had several 1-3" type snows now, right?

A fairly mild 32 this Am. It was raining here when I last looked yesterday...around 9PM. Canadian advertising 2 of the next 3 mornings well into the teens for colder PA spots. Nam almost agrees on one of them.

In defense of those questioning, this is not the end game many are wanting. I know, just an op run.

GFS throwing stuff at the wall now.

You can do it under the premise that the GFS is showing a string of coastals but totally agree, it will very likely be different in a few hours.

You could have started thinking about sports or something and held out longer, so your money shot was this.....

That is my worry (rain) and the GFS/CMC showing more of the same next week. The GFS does end it as snow.

Despite the cold this week, I am guessing they are indeed out into January at this point.

That is real close to what I believe MDT's number is right now (not sure the records site has today's number in it yet). Their norm for year sits around 42.78 doing some quick math if I have the right numbers so they are about 5-6" below normal as of today. They seem locked in to be about 5" or more BN year end. Using MDT's numbers here at my place, which officially is what we should do, we are going to be 16-18" below normal for the year.