Bubbler86

I still think much of the issue is using ensembles to try and forecast ground truth. If you have a 10-model ensemble and 9 runs show the highs will be in the 50's and one run shows the highs will be near 0, the resulting ensemble mean is going to be grossly understated despite only 10% of the suites showing such a solution. It is similar to the difference between an average salary and a median salary. With average salary figures, the large wage earners skew the numbers to make the resulting figures look between than reality. Using the ensembles to "check up on the op's" is a better use, IMO....or to look for potential.

That was why I said next BUT it has trended backwards several runs in a row. Cannot blame anyone for wanting to see the goods within 5-7 days before we make a purchase. Too far out to fret over much.

It could certainly snow if a well-timed low came calling, which it does not on this run, but the lowest high temp on the entire run is around 40....which is 10-15 higher than it was yesterday on some colder runs. The Voyager maps are showing up again in the LR. NOT A FORECAST (not directed at you) and I do not need to be told how wrong it may be, just a PBP.

Better role out some more ensembles because the Op GFS is not really getting cold enough air down into the US now. Next (model run)!

What is also impressive (segue) is what Whitetails power bill must be despite not hosting paying skiers. They have had their main slope lights on every night for weeks.

Got down to 25 here but up to 31 here as well. The real cold air held a bit east of what the rgem as forecasting. Low to mid 20's in Chester county right now.

Hopefully the start of a new run. Two OT wins on the PP in Consecutive nights. A rare feat.

I know at Whitetail a lot of trails face South because I can see them from my house on a clear day. I feel like the Liberty ones face more West or Northwest but trying to gauge though off driving up there.

To me looking at this pic, Liberty is not even close especially with rain and 50's coming.

That is pretty amazing. The low highs this week must have really helped them out. Do not see the same for Liberty at least on their web site.

A polite way to say it, nice.

Yea, wayyy too far out. I agree that early January is our first window and seeing the Op showing so much cold air in the US at that point is reassuring. Unless this falls off, it is a big plus that we are only going to have a one week can kick this winter as to potential winter weather.

It actually seemed to transfer vs head....but that is as far as I am willing to dissect 384 :-). Would have to see some more panels to see if it a model blip but regardless, we are well on our way to losing 850's on the final panel behind a SE Wind at 850 and Easterly at the surface. I just cannot come to using ensemble means for anything except patterns so just discuss the one op I saw :-)

That system on the GFS looked like it was going to be something big and then, it runs for the GL on the last panel...so that may be out next, great hope indeed!

I cannot believe Office Depot is still kickin.

We have not cracked 40 since the 18th. Nice 3-day stretch.

12Z GFS continues with the much colder look the last few days of Dec into the New Year but the first contestant to take advantage of the colder air decides it would rather visit the GL's. 300+ look so not relevant other than a PBP . No temps above 40 after the 28th.

11:33 Nooner-Cloudy and 33. Looks like it could snow.

Just west of the LSV and western LSV is quite cold.

It got up to 32 here around 8AM but back down to 29.

The true LSV got a bad shake last night. Even B-Dub got down to 29. Low to mid 20's for central MD rural areas.

Current Global Model Christmas high temp forecasts for MDT. Icon, GFS: 55ish Ec: Low 50's CMC amd UK: 50ish

Send them to Arizona where they can be used in the high grounds.