Bubbler86

Randy locked it, unpinned it and started a new one.

This thread is Harvard Law compared to the Dec MA LR thread which was just closed down.

Going to end up with under 1/4" of rain from this event....MDT not doing much better.

Eh, I was more saying that this AM's GFS had it on schedule for the talk of the last few days which was the second week of Jan. The talk about it getting cold right after Christmas left the building over a week ago.

I just found Mad Elf on tap at a movie theatre. A nice find. The fact that we are talking beer also clues in on the latest GFS Op and MA LR thread as to where that topic stands right now.

High of 50 here so far today with only .15" since midnight. A lot of drizzle.

Sure, but if Ruin wants something a lot colder than 42 then that was not being shown until later in January. But agree that normal is not shabby and chances of snow. Verbatim on the 6Z, the highs do not stay in the 30's at MDT any day until January 6th which pretty much matches what many have been talking about. There has not been much support recently for BN level cold the first few days of Jan.

Those temps he posted are not far from the normal as to highs for Sun and Mon (normal is 40). If his angle was snow, he needs below normal whether one calls it cold or not. Normal high on Jan 15th is 38.

Not much GFS support for BN temps until the second week of Jan now.

I think the big worry from above is that we have not had a lot of OP runs showing extensive cold regardless of prospective patterns....a few have but on random runs that popped in and out. We need to start seeing it consistently.

I think the only people cancelling January are in the MA thread and not many at that. But the OP GFS was not good regardless.

It was not below freezing before the event and there is no below freezing temps anywhere near the area except way above the ground, so it is not a good setup outside rate induced cooling which is not optimal.

Not a good GFS run....after some snow TV on Jan 7th we are left with this. A stark contract to some runs last week which showed real cold invading the US by the time of this map.

He is a "bit of a pessimist" though. LOL.

Still not much in the way of modeled cold air to our north (in early Jan) has caused the lunch menu to be an extra-large melt. IMO, still way too early to count out anything after the first few days of the month.

Just a little bit in my lower area of the mountain. Hard to see up very far though as more low clouds and fog higher. I see they extended the fog adv to parts of the LSV.

Rgem and Nam 3K ramping up totals a bit for tomorrow....over 2" in many central and Eastern PA areas now. HRRR still nowhere near that and Nam12 focused the heavier rains in N Central PA with 1-2" still in Central and Southeastern PA.

T of rain overnight and 40.

I think others have chimed in before, but their zones are sometimes automated I believe.

Their AFD sounds quite a bit different than the zones. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large scale negative tilt upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley this Christmas afternoon will bring widespread showers to the area later tonight into into Wed. The chance of rain will taper off on Thursday. While some areas may see over an inch, the system is not as intense as the one the other week, and the rain will be spread over several days, so not expecting to see flooding at this point. The last system had a warm core and very intense warm advection.

Strictly speaking models, that seems quite high. Some progs have you getting under 1'. Others are 1-2'.

High of 54 here today.

Pittsburgh Special for that last vort on the 6Z GFS. Op and ensembles keep insisting we will have something.

Merry Christmas. 42 7:00Am Nooners.