Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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For @canderson
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I see people talking about consistency on the MA board but though it may have been consistent with some players, the actual ground truth of the SLP's path was anything but consistent from 12Z.
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Great LSV run compared to 12Z. From suppressed to under state/South VA scooter. 8-12" Southern half of PA.
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Making a run for Ohio/KY.
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18Z GFS is has a north jog in the system at 120....we may need it to avoid suppression.
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Yea, same here. It is definitively further south as to the precip shield so a bit worried where it was going.
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18Z Icon looks like it could escape our grasp it if continued on.
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LOL, the luxuries of spell check. Mod-Heavy snow in Blue Ridge Summit. Cars caved. Near the Franklin/Adams line 1350 feet. Mix rain/snow in Rou and 33.
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Cumberland, Franklin, Adams, York and Dauphin counties today and one theme....it is raining a lot more than I was expecting. Snowing to our south.
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The level of posts on here makes it impossible to follow the "show" on the MA thread when just checking in every hour or two. Lol.
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Totally agreed. It/the 4th system is the key to track, IMO. Fun to track either way.
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You have yourself a fan.
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Gfs heard me talking about a slider I guess. It caved to the 0z icon (joking sort of)
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That helps take one southern slider suite off the board for now. Good news.
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I admit it is not likely but the major change in the big players (high, Jan 4th 50 low) over the last 24 hours has me watching for it.
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I am actually a small tad worried about a southern slider at this point. If the 12z euro takes it further south then we are just hanging on at that point. It is certainly not par for the course for the norm of highs weakening and storms trending north though. 9:45 nooners in Hanover. 36 and damp. Cars were covered with snow in Blue Ridge Summit. First time I have been in Hanover and not fighting traffic.
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Thanks, still about 2/3 favoring it sliding through the Southeast. Quite a few in the Delmarva at that point with another cluster well to the south.
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Do you have this same map at 0Z Sun to compare to the one above? I do not have Plus.
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Grabbed this from the MA thread...0Z EPS members locations of SLP at 7PM Saturday. About 2/3 agree with the Op in this not making an Ohio Valley Run and block/transfer.
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The Nam and CMC both advertising an LSV coating-1" Thur AM as the "Jan 4th" low passes well to our south but interacts with some energy and forcing over S PA. Temps are near freezing. The EC has switched camps and joined the Icon with the Jan 7th system being a Miller A now as well. Slides the low off the Northern NC Coast instead of climbing to near Ohio. Happy New Year everyone.
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Light rain and 40 here. Temp has jumped 3 degrees in the last 60 min.
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Maybe the GEFS is on to something. LOL
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This is an ensemble mean and not an individual model forecast so one of these could be influenced by member(s) who are drastically different than others, but the High over Easten Canada is weaker at 12Z Sat on the GEFS than it is on the GFS while the "50/50 Low" is also weaker, to the tune of 30Mb, on the GEFS. Would certainly make for a drastically different result. The low is 968 on the GFS and 990 on the GEFS. There is a cluster of lows around the top but speaking about the farther south displaced one.
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Tip of the cap to the Icon.
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That strip in there (18.5 on Kuch) looks like South Mountain and the Micheaux Forest. I doubt I jackpot with a dying low to the West as to this specific run.
