Bubbler86

But the 6Z Euro is warm. At hour 90, some of the LSV is mixed. Nothing like the GFS which is my point of the gyrations with the models.

It is uncanny how up and down the tracking has been on this one. It seems every 12 hours we have one suite threatening a little snow/a sunny day on Saturday and another driving a low too far north. Goes to show how hard trying to put a forecast out is...the interactions are too complicated to pin down.

I saw a map in the MA that showed rain in the LSV at hour 90. But one thing we can ascertain...the Euro and GFS are quite a bit apart.

That is sleet and freezing rain over a large area of Adams and Franklin. No bueno.

I do not have the 6Z but with the max out in the elevations, that looks more like temp issues.

SS? Carpet installers? That is a pretty high total forecast.

Icon and CMC staying relatively consistent. Have to like that. GFS all over the place with the strength and low placement each run. Saw the rgem mentioned but not the Nam. Just looked at the Nam and I see why. Looks like the 6Z Euro really came in low as well. Chaos.

Is the Old going to be this severe? Low of 29 in Rou.

Nam has the Low in N. Florida at the end of its 0z run. In step with other suites that have a low sweeping to the SE coast.

With the move up in starting time, AM Sat for some here, the Meso's are really coming into play earlier than thought.

Like you said, same result.

The 18gfs was great news for the Southern pa counties. So were most of the GEFS members.

In a matter of 6 hours the GEFS has gone from showing a good 1/3 of its members with an OH/TN Valley Low to just 3-4.

You guys are in the game as much as we are at this point. Both the CMC and EC showed what you need which is the primary getting into the TN or OH Valley, so you have moisture around. If the Primary does a scoot out to our South, Western PA will not be happy.

18Z Yesterday first below then 18Z today. Both the Jan 4th low, now NE of Canada on these shots, and the highest area of pressure are displaced a little North on today's run vs. yesterday...and Northern Stream Kicker is closer than it was yesterday. Faster and less wound-up system for our area is somehow the result. Maybe the kicker is the key here, not sure.

For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking. The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run. This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday. I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly. The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run. 24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast. On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry. And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster. 12-18 hours faster. I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still. That is a cop out answer, sorry.

I cannot keep up with the bouncing ball (models). The GFS keeps rotating between a stronger low that finds a weakness and cuts to KY or OH to its current iteration of a low getting to the SE Coast then jumping into the DelMarVa with a solid but quick moving wall of moisture.

State College went from having Nick Saban as their coach to having James Franklin as to 12Z accums vs 18Z.

I hope you are joking. LOL. Check out this compare from 12 to 18Z. 12 has a dying primary/ULL in Ohio. 18 has little precip in far SW PA because there was little prescence in the Oh Valley. Weaker and faster low.

Helps you guys a ton. I just bounced between some maps and it is weaker. Just a little worried in what it does from hour 96 to 102. That is quite the transfer.

Parts of the MA panic room can wind down again.

18Z GFS back to a Miller A/almost Southern slider but does hammer the LSV. Little to no OH Valley Prescence. It almost escaped...close call. Northern PA mostly left. Fast mover so only 4-8" despite some good rates. The changes are fairly drastic from 12Z. No time to dissect, sure someone will do it.

I have to do something to counteract the silly comments I get about not using guidance past a certain hour....this after watching the big boys flip and flop today.

NAM AT RANGE WARNING----NAM AT RANGE WARNING At 84 hours the SLP is on the cusp of the Gulf near New Orleans in a very similar position as the 12Z CMC. The approaching High is displaced a bit East vs, the CMC. Looking at 500H it is going to go North East in some manner but would be guess work to suggest how.