Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Primary low still west of Pa at 21. Snow for much of PA but much of LSV is mix or rain. Northern LSV still snow.
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Great run for Western PA when the 850's are grabbed back.
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HRRR show a dual barrel area of lowest pressure with one SLP into SW PA at 28 and another in NC at 29. It is the model reflecting around to the location of the lowest pressure. But 850's are initially lost in SW PA due to it.
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HRRR in SW VA at 27 with a thin band of snow at the M/D line. Change in orientation of the precip could have snow in Lanco before 10AM.
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12Z HRRR the SLP is in North Georgia at hour 23.
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VERY elevation dependent signal there for southern locales I checked the Fv3 for some love and got 1-2" so need the 12Z's to save the day.
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If we get a "strong" slp up into WV that transfers, I would expect moisture issues here.
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Yo Yo time. This lack of a clear vision does make sense in the fact that we no room for error with our cold air...even in the best of times, when a low makes it to North WV (Nam and Euro) we have worries here....including the aforementioned dry slot.
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Yep. 1-3" is what I saw. A non event. Then we have the RGEM with 10-12".
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Brah, we are right here and can see you talking about us! :-)
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Right, and I was thinking it may be due to the transfer where the OH Valley Low peters out and the new low is too far north to subject us to its CCB goodness.
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If you are referring to the models (and not definitions and which is right) I would propose that we need more definitions as I argue this was never really a true Miller A on some progs. It was on some of the Icon runs and maybe the Canadians. The Nam 12 was clearly showing dual SLP's yesterday so although the output panels looked like a Miller A, there was energy going up into the TN and OH valley as well.
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That is a slap in the face.
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I cannot see the maps but going to guess we get dry slotted on the Euro with the transfer.
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And the Nam is not really showing as much going on the Eastern Flank early on like it was yesterday. This is a much closer Miller B look unfortunately though some definitions of Miller B say the storm has to form in the Oh Valley vs come up the apps.
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Need the op's to stop with the cutters ball. GFS had something on MLK but the one of interest before trended the wrong way with nothing to force it under us. CMC has some energy get into the base of the trough and poof it is gone. Does show a rare Clipper late.
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We are actually down to 17 here. Cold one.
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That pivotal map I posted was with the storm rolling out. Only .1 or .2" was added. Just large differences between Pivotal and Wb Kuch maps.
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CLose to a foot.
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Rgem is a lot of rain for some on TT and a snowstorm on Pivotal.
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Must not be enough ensembles on their screen.
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I don't hate them but do not think much of their use for snow maps at any range much less 18 hours before the event starts.
