Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Yo Yo time. This lack of a clear vision does make sense in the fact that we no room for error with our cold air...even in the best of times, when a low makes it to North WV (Nam and Euro) we have worries here....including the aforementioned dry slot.
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Yep. 1-3" is what I saw. A non event. Then we have the RGEM with 10-12".
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Brah, we are right here and can see you talking about us! :-)
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Right, and I was thinking it may be due to the transfer where the OH Valley Low peters out and the new low is too far north to subject us to its CCB goodness.
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If you are referring to the models (and not definitions and which is right) I would propose that we need more definitions as I argue this was never really a true Miller A on some progs. It was on some of the Icon runs and maybe the Canadians. The Nam 12 was clearly showing dual SLP's yesterday so although the output panels looked like a Miller A, there was energy going up into the TN and OH valley as well.
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That is a slap in the face.
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I cannot see the maps but going to guess we get dry slotted on the Euro with the transfer.
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And the Nam is not really showing as much going on the Eastern Flank early on like it was yesterday. This is a much closer Miller B look unfortunately though some definitions of Miller B say the storm has to form in the Oh Valley vs come up the apps.
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Need the op's to stop with the cutters ball. GFS had something on MLK but the one of interest before trended the wrong way with nothing to force it under us. CMC has some energy get into the base of the trough and poof it is gone. Does show a rare Clipper late.
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We are actually down to 17 here. Cold one.
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That pivotal map I posted was with the storm rolling out. Only .1 or .2" was added. Just large differences between Pivotal and Wb Kuch maps.
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CLose to a foot.
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Rgem is a lot of rain for some on TT and a snowstorm on Pivotal.
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Must not be enough ensembles on their screen.
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I don't hate them but do not think much of their use for snow maps at any range much less 18 hours before the event starts.
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LOL it is not a rule, I was kidding and did not mean to offend. But most will move away from them because you have 20, 30 models being fed purposely alternate (one could argue false) data so close to an event, at what point do you assume the real data will prevail. A lot of forecasting outfits will not refer to them within 3-5 days of an event. When you have such a small spread of 72 or 96 hours, usually the purposely entered alterations do not produce as much effect as say 6-7 days out.
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What happened to the no ensembles within 3 days rule? :-)
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Also, the snow depth change maps on the GFS are not related to anything after the storm So, if it says 2" on Sunday it is still 2" on Wed after the Ark flooding coming our way. It is cumulative. So, to me it is only useful for the hours after a snow event. Here is the actual snow depth map for a week out. Not cumulative. Brown town and maybe Walmart parking lots.
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It is the actual snow that will remain after a storm. So we get 6" accums but compaction and temps above freezing/rain take a toll, it is what you see on the ground when the sun comes out. Many Mets use it vs. The accum maps. Computer magic.
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Don't say it!
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GFS snow depth
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A distinct column cooling signal there with rain at the front.
