Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Quite a bit slower with snow in the air for South Central PA compared to some other suites.
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At 10:1, that is drastically different that the SLR one I saw. SLR was about half.
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I think people often look at that as a last resort.
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It is soon plume time!
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It has at least been consistent in taking the low under us vs. forcing energy our west. EC and GFS have waffled between the two.
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Icon is a very fast mover....2-4 or 3-5" for much of PA.
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It is actually most of Lanco. Very marginal temps as modeled on the rgem.
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Icon has mod-heavy snow for about half of far Southern PA at 1PM on Sat. This includes the Pitt crew.
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True except it is above freezing in the SE corner of the LSV at the surface. Would it actually be above freezing with heavy snow falling? I vote no but that is what the output shows.
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You and I are already approaching 10" Kuch at 7PM Saturday. The other great thing about this evolution is less front end mixing concerns for PA or far N MD. Might get some snow TV as the surface is warm but the column seems better.
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I think the Rgem would eventually be 1-2 feet in Southern PA
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It is a winner...crowd pleaser plus. Well, Southern half of PA crowd and the MA.
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It backed up the CMC , IMO
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If the Nam shows 1-2 feet, this place would be posting maps at a rapid pace. Rgem is rolling and it always comes in fast on pivotal.
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It definitely changed a bit so assuming it is going to trend more toward the other suites.
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Nam has a Dual barreled situation with one low in the TN Valley and one off the SE Coast at 1PM Sat. No Precip near PA at this point. At 7PM the coastal takes over and a light mix of rain/snow/frz/sleet in far South PA. Not impressive.
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If it shows the OTS solution again, I am ignoring it for now. Love me some Nam but that is a drastic departure from the others.
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That has been debated here. Some say 2". I first heard that term on ABC 27 or Wgal and they were suggesting 4 or more inches. Models are inconsistent but really what make this board live...if they were rarely wrong, there would not be nearly as much discussion.
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But the 6Z Euro is warm. At hour 90, some of the LSV is mixed. Nothing like the GFS which is my point of the gyrations with the models.
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It is uncanny how up and down the tracking has been on this one. It seems every 12 hours we have one suite threatening a little snow/a sunny day on Saturday and another driving a low too far north. Goes to show how hard trying to put a forecast out is...the interactions are too complicated to pin down.
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I saw a map in the MA that showed rain in the LSV at hour 90. But one thing we can ascertain...the Euro and GFS are quite a bit apart.
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That is sleet and freezing rain over a large area of Adams and Franklin. No bueno.
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I do not have the 6Z but with the max out in the elevations, that looks more like temp issues.
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SS? Carpet installers? That is a pretty high total forecast.
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Icon and CMC staying relatively consistent. Have to like that. GFS all over the place with the strength and low placement each run. Saw the rgem mentioned but not the Nam. Just looked at the Nam and I see why. Looks like the 6Z Euro really came in low as well. Chaos.
