Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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@Chris78 I feel like my confidence in some of the colder/snowier solutions is wearing thin re: our convo last night. May have been too confident in the Euro being off.
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We may have been expecting too much with marginal cold and a low in the midwest.
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@mitchnick we toss the GFS :-)
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The RGEM is jumping low positions like the Nam did. Less than ideal for forecasting or trusting model outputs. Whether Miller A, B or hybrid it is easier if the solution is clean. On pivotal, the identified low jumps from Cental AL to Eastern GA to SC then back to GA over a 2-3 hour period. More than one area of lowest pressure vs. a consolidated strengthening low.
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The 3K has a similar evolution of the lowest area of pressure flopping around hour to hour. Always hate to see that as to eventual strength. Convoluted mess.
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Start time on the Nam is before noon for the western half of the LSV and it snows decently for 6 or so hours.
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Very convoluted. The pressure panels show it carrying two areas of lowest pressure for several panels and neither really strengthens much. 850's are lost well into PA Sat morning due but come crashing back as the Tn/Oh Valley prescence lost impact. So, it started as a Miller A but really went off the tracks. It looks like the low is jumping places but it is the Nam changing where it is placing the lowest pressure for that panel.
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At 57 the OH Valley Primary, which was the new low spawned a few panels before, is totally ceding to the coastal but the coastal only down to 1005.
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Very weak set of lows and fighting to see which one shows as primary on the Nam panels.
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It is a Dual Barrel Low it seems.
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Snow and rain starting in SW PA mid-morning Sat on the Nam. Nam struggling with two areas lowest pressure but primary is off SC coast at this time.
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Nam is not following the HRRR and is staying as a pure Miller A through 42.
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Speaking of Mesos (and I do agree that the HRRR at 48 is too far out to take too much from but for discussion) the SLP is up in Tennessee on Saturday morning on today's 12Z HRRR. It started climbing north before getting to Florida.
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We started when 84 hours out. They are bleeding as well. Good to see the Euro back track on the bleeding though.
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Agreed. We have invested ungodly amounts of time shoveling potential and patterns the last few years. You would think that at some point the general theme would be to say, "That pattern has potential, let's play it out" vs. "Jan will be rockin!" Models (ensembles or op's) are flawed 3 days out....how can we count on something 3x that?
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On the subject of the high, it is progged to be in a fairly similar location and a few MB's difference in strength on the Dec 31 6Z GFS as today's 6Z GFS at 7PM Sunday. The major difference is the SLP is hundreds of miles farther East and weaker than it was on the Dec 31 panel and there is a more robust Northern Stream kicker behind it now. The 50/50 low is also positioned better on the Dec 31 panel.
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This panel is sobering...
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An expectations issue...we started high.
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Saw this on the MA so passing on. I do not spend the $$$ to get it. Does not include out farther North or West members unfortunately.
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Really minimizes blowing as depicted above.
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Taking the snowiest model I noticed this AM....2M temps during the height of the snow.
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It is always good news on WB snow maps.
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Yea, that has been a constant thorn with the Nam runs the last few cycles.
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I still do not buy the precip shield...thermals, maybe.
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Some eventual rain for the LSV as well.
