Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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LOL it is not a rule, I was kidding and did not mean to offend. But most will move away from them because you have 20, 30 models being fed purposely alternate (one could argue false) data so close to an event, at what point do you assume the real data will prevail. A lot of forecasting outfits will not refer to them within 3-5 days of an event. When you have such a small spread of 72 or 96 hours, usually the purposely entered alterations do not produce as much effect as say 6-7 days out.
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What happened to the no ensembles within 3 days rule? :-)
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Also, the snow depth change maps on the GFS are not related to anything after the storm So, if it says 2" on Sunday it is still 2" on Wed after the Ark flooding coming our way. It is cumulative. So, to me it is only useful for the hours after a snow event. Here is the actual snow depth map for a week out. Not cumulative. Brown town and maybe Walmart parking lots.
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It is the actual snow that will remain after a storm. So we get 6" accums but compaction and temps above freezing/rain take a toll, it is what you see on the ground when the sun comes out. Many Mets use it vs. The accum maps. Computer magic.
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Don't say it!
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GFS snow depth
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A distinct column cooling signal there with rain at the front.
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Totally agree.
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I understand, I was being sarcastic about WB's totals which are dubious at times.
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Does he use WB to measure totals as well?
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RRFS near the end of its run. Initially has two surface lows, one riding up toward TN and another rolling through the Panhandle of Florida. App runner takes over and deepens to a 998 over Central NC on its way to this point below. Regional view did not show the SLP.
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Or Drought relieving rainstorms.
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Yea, I am not sold on the Euro being right more than wrong as to true weather. I think the rankings are based on 500H and fronts. There was no drought this summer if the Euro had been even half right.
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34 and light snow here right now for nooners. We are all wrong a lot here so even if you are wrong, it is still right to say your opinion. People who were flagging the first half of Jan are not going to like it.
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Like my typos, I am overlooking yours now. You had me at hasca
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10-1
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As depicted, that is a much more interesting situation than next week. That is definitely a period to watch.
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@Chris78 I feel like my confidence in some of the colder/snowier solutions is wearing thin re: our convo last night. May have been too confident in the Euro being off.
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We may have been expecting too much with marginal cold and a low in the midwest.
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@mitchnick we toss the GFS :-)
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The RGEM is jumping low positions like the Nam did. Less than ideal for forecasting or trusting model outputs. Whether Miller A, B or hybrid it is easier if the solution is clean. On pivotal, the identified low jumps from Cental AL to Eastern GA to SC then back to GA over a 2-3 hour period. More than one area of lowest pressure vs. a consolidated strengthening low.
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The 3K has a similar evolution of the lowest area of pressure flopping around hour to hour. Always hate to see that as to eventual strength. Convoluted mess.
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Start time on the Nam is before noon for the western half of the LSV and it snows decently for 6 or so hours.
