Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Good info/map I just grabbed from the MA. NBM probabilities since we have been talking about the blend of models today.
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Here is a skew-t from TT when it is showing rain in much of the LSV. Definitely model site differences in interpreting the data but the Kuch snow map on Pivotal does look like one that shows the southern parts of PA had mixing issues regardless of the preip maps so it is close. I do not have WB.
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Different model sites use different algorithm's for the precip type. Here is TT showing the changeover. Pivotal's maps do not show the same, but they decreased snow in this same area from the 0z run that was pretty much all snow.
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I charge to email people so might be a wash. I am like an attorney without the law degree.
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I will ask tomorrow and see what you think then.
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The GFS does drop warning level snows before any change over so not terrible...to clarify. Just not a strictly snow system with the proximity of the vort. Almost no snow for MA cities.
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CMC is a PA crusher. SLP enters the Atlantic off the NC/VA coast. Large change from 0Z. GFS is more Miller B like again and not ideal for parts of South Central PA.
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This first slug is farther west and large it appears.
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Thanks, obviously some change there for our neck of the woods.
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12z Icon is still sweet in a Miller A way. A little close for far southern folks. Surface is 30-33 for the LSV.
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The CMC has done really well with extreme low temps but agree that otherwise it usually caves. There is also the issue (faced here yesterday) were some people take model reading as a forecast when others know it is just a discussion of the current prog. Someone on here said WGAL is sounding the sirens this AM, I did not hear it, but that will get the public humming and set up the need for results or more PTSD will ensue.
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I figured the mean would not be different. Not ideal if the Euro starts trending away from its previous consistent solution.
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The MA thread may fall of a cliff.
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Still quite a few with a decent snow here...
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I scanned over the posts and saw the Euro moved more toward a Canadian like solution after having been so consistent the last few days. Cannot see all the maps but guessing we are still decent here though hopefully not a trend.
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A thread has been opened on the MA board so we will know more at 12Z. Quite often, if it is to fail, it will happen now.
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Low of 29 last night...first night under freezing in over a week.
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At least the 0z is out early. The EC is the PITA at night.
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The Euro Suite has been more consistent for the good or bad unless I am forgetting some jumps.
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PBP's are not throwing in the towel. It is part of careers for some on here and a fun hobby for others. The NWS does the same thing with their AFD's several times a day. Those proclamations of no snow for 2 weeks occurred 1-2 weeks ago. Sounds like for the LSV they were spot on.
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To clarify, I am not raining on any parades just doing PBP. But I am a bit down that the third one is a cutter too. The G suite is not buying into a long winter run as of yet. Cold air still locked up to our north.
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It is a lot of rain falling on snow.
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IF the LSV sees over a foot of snow on the 7th, adding on 1-3" of rain 3 days later is a lot of qpf in a short period (F word.)
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Yep, I did not want to say it. In addition, temps never drop below 30 in the LSV which will limit blowing a bit. Above freezing in Lanco near the end.
