Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Totally agreed. It/the 4th system is the key to track, IMO. Fun to track either way.
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You have yourself a fan.
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Gfs heard me talking about a slider I guess. It caved to the 0z icon (joking sort of)
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That helps take one southern slider suite off the board for now. Good news.
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I admit it is not likely but the major change in the big players (high, Jan 4th 50 low) over the last 24 hours has me watching for it.
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I am actually a small tad worried about a southern slider at this point. If the 12z euro takes it further south then we are just hanging on at that point. It is certainly not par for the course for the norm of highs weakening and storms trending north though. 9:45 nooners in Hanover. 36 and damp. Cars were covered with snow in Blue Ridge Summit. First time I have been in Hanover and not fighting traffic.
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Thanks, still about 2/3 favoring it sliding through the Southeast. Quite a few in the Delmarva at that point with another cluster well to the south.
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Do you have this same map at 0Z Sun to compare to the one above? I do not have Plus.
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Grabbed this from the MA thread...0Z EPS members locations of SLP at 7PM Saturday. About 2/3 agree with the Op in this not making an Ohio Valley Run and block/transfer.
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The Nam and CMC both advertising an LSV coating-1" Thur AM as the "Jan 4th" low passes well to our south but interacts with some energy and forcing over S PA. Temps are near freezing. The EC has switched camps and joined the Icon with the Jan 7th system being a Miller A now as well. Slides the low off the Northern NC Coast instead of climbing to near Ohio. Happy New Year everyone.
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Light rain and 40 here. Temp has jumped 3 degrees in the last 60 min.
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Maybe the GEFS is on to something. LOL
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This is an ensemble mean and not an individual model forecast so one of these could be influenced by member(s) who are drastically different than others, but the High over Easten Canada is weaker at 12Z Sat on the GEFS than it is on the GFS while the "50/50 Low" is also weaker, to the tune of 30Mb, on the GEFS. Would certainly make for a drastically different result. The low is 968 on the GFS and 990 on the GEFS. There is a cluster of lows around the top but speaking about the farther south displaced one.
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Tip of the cap to the Icon.
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That strip in there (18.5 on Kuch) looks like South Mountain and the Micheaux Forest. I doubt I jackpot with a dying low to the West as to this specific run.
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Up 4Mb from previous frame.
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It actually does not get as far North as earlier today. KY before it loses much of its influence on our column.
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10-1 is 14-20" through S Central PA. Kuch close to 10-14".
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Sunday Tuck.
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Mid-morning Sunday, primary is off the Delmarva and snow is still cranking in PA.
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I think S Central PA is going to make a run for 2ft on the 10-1 snow maps.
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New Low reflection becomes primary in South VA Sunday AM as heavy snow is raking about 2/3 of PA.
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Sat evening, light snow is breaking out across S Pa as a 990 Low sits on the Tn/Al border.
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Sat 7AM the low is about the same Mb as 12Z but is delayed a bit sitting on the Tx/La border instead of further East which will lead to a faster rise toward the Ohio Valley. It made it to the Gulf at 12Z but will not on this run.
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Typo, all fixed up now. I was talking Mb.
