Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Up 4Mb from previous frame.
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It actually does not get as far North as earlier today. KY before it loses much of its influence on our column.
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10-1 is 14-20" through S Central PA. Kuch close to 10-14".
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Sunday Tuck.
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Mid-morning Sunday, primary is off the Delmarva and snow is still cranking in PA.
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I think S Central PA is going to make a run for 2ft on the 10-1 snow maps.
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New Low reflection becomes primary in South VA Sunday AM as heavy snow is raking about 2/3 of PA.
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Sat evening, light snow is breaking out across S Pa as a 990 Low sits on the Tn/Al border.
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Sat 7AM the low is about the same Mb as 12Z but is delayed a bit sitting on the Tx/La border instead of further East which will lead to a faster rise toward the Ohio Valley. It made it to the Gulf at 12Z but will not on this run.
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Typo, all fixed up now. I was talking Mb.
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18Z GFS, Jan 4th is fairly similar to 12Z as both streams stay separate with some very light snow over the scattered areas of PA while the southern wave scoots off the Carolina coast...with hopes that it helps set us up for success in 3 days. The LP deepens quite well once heading toward the Northern Atlantic as it drops into the upper 960's Thursday night.
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18Z Icon not buying into a strong reflection into the Ohio Valley as of yet for the 7th chance.
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I could not believe they lost. Sorry man. Cowboys deserved to lose with their play calling. Both teams backing into the playoffs.
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I think those ratings mostly use frontal placement vs. ground truth weather (like you suggested.) The Ukie has not been good when I have tried to incorporate it into forecasts.
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If right, he just invalidated most of the current posts on the MA LR thread. He is like the anti-Brooklyn. Lol
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NA View showing the 1/4 System as of 1/7 (off the coast of NE Canada.) Slight bump north from 954 at 6Z to its position as a 957 at 12Z. The SLP over the MA bumped itself north in a similar fashion because the blocking allowed it that little extra free space plus it allowed it to maintain a better reflection into the Ohio Valley.
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Goodie, I cannot wait until the first reply to a Nam PBP telling me it is not in range. But totally agree that nothing is over good or bad, just a model PBP. What is not great is if one believes in trends but wayyyy too early to worry about something that will probably change depending on what the 1/4 system ultimately does in creating a 50/50.
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GFS a forum splitter this run. Not great trend wise for the LSV but way too early to assume the prog can ascertain how strong any prospective 50/50 low or ridge building in would be.
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CMC more suppressed but a major jump north from 0Z.
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Next SW, snow overspreading PA Saturday late afternoon and evening...moved up the speed a tad....but primary is MUCH farther Northwest in the Ohio Valley at this time. It transfers but not great for southeastern PA. Validates the concerns from this AM as to possible eventual depictions.
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12Z GFS shows a bit more interaction between the streams for Jan 4th but temps are still an issue...rain in the LSV and snow TV elsewhere in PA. Minor either way.
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Let's just hope the 6Z GFS reported as eligible to the officials.
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Definitely better than we were 48 hours ago but almost too good, too fast for some....still a good problem to have vs last week.
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Agreed.
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Gotcha. They may pivot and not have it there to get stuck.
