Bubbler86

T of rain overnight and 40.

I think others have chimed in before, but their zones are sometimes automated I believe.

Their AFD sounds quite a bit different than the zones. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large scale negative tilt upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley this Christmas afternoon will bring widespread showers to the area later tonight into into Wed. The chance of rain will taper off on Thursday. While some areas may see over an inch, the system is not as intense as the one the other week, and the rain will be spread over several days, so not expecting to see flooding at this point. The last system had a warm core and very intense warm advection.

Strictly speaking models, that seems quite high. Some progs have you getting under 1'. Others are 1-2'.

High of 54 here today.

Pittsburgh Special for that last vort on the 6Z GFS. Op and ensembles keep insisting we will have something.

Merry Christmas. 42 7:00Am Nooners.

Probably too early to worry. Seems like a strong possibility a good of the first half of Jan will be colder.

I have been kind of hinting as such (not cold enough for snow for the first 1-4 days of the month outside sloppy snow) too though it did have a run or two where the cold was in earlier. Does not seem to be much on the GEFS ensemble mean to debate the GFS as to highs below freezing for the first few days of Jan. Highs near 35-40 on the mean. Colder after the 5th.

You too and enjoy hashing out model output anytime with you as long as we both are allowed to have valid opinions! That disclaimer was for people who trash the Op like it is not a valid model to discuss. I am certainly not going to spend the time to parse every member of the Low Res Gefs panel.

6Z GFS keeps trying to expand that last vort but having troubles making it any more than a nuisance snow right now as the wave is delayed and misses the chance to work with a departing trough. One major plus is the cold in place that gets entrenched to start the second week of Jan. Still think the lack of sufficient cold to our north limits things the first week of Jan. Disclaimer, this is just a PBP and doing the 300's because it is when wintery weather would get most interesting. If you do not like LR OP's, great....tell your wife, tell your dog, say a prayer, but I do not need to know it. Appreciate it!

After one of the colder, wintery feeling weeks in recent times, it is an even 40 here this AM. Santa pulling the heat with him.

Re desk jockey-In many cases, the best model PBPing is done on someone else's dime.

@Mount Joy Snowman, MDT is locked in for an AN month....will it be >< 2.5 AN? Time to put down the nog and scratch out some math. :-)

There have been lots of grievances aired here the last 2-3 days.

Everyone is choking on their hot toddy's because Steel scored 34 points. PS-18Z GFS....at least we are still in the game.

I still would like this area to trend colder on an ensemble mean....

I saw that and really his thoughts are my "backup" per se....winter is not over if we fail in early to mid Jan.

Gets showing similar strong signal to the eps for Jan 7th time frame.

That is the one I am watching as well....feel we are asking for too much beyond sloppy light stuff before then. Need to see the papa op move toward it. The PV suppression is one possibility. I personally am not a fan of an arctic outbreak both due to the cold and supression.

Just ticked up to 40 here for the first time since Monday.

It is way out there but the EPS info Bob pointed out about a heavy emphasis on precip in the Gulf coming into the second week of January is a good sign even this far out. Not impressed with it being cold enough for snow until we get past the first few days of January but somewhat excited days 5-15.

When you run, 20...30...40 models and combine them, you will always have hope this far out.

He still has the ensembles.