Like you said, HRRR shows snow here later but it initialized very poorly as to precip types. Shows all snow way to our south at 2PM. Back to sn+ here. Rain only lasted during a lull in rates.
My changeover scenario did not work out too well. I truly thought people would lose 850 and 925 along with above and sleet would be limited. Maybe it will not be that much.
Some areas (hopefully SE of our board) in SE PA could get quite a lot of rain this afternoon and evening. Not surprised to see some get over 1" with the low deepening a bit.
That is surprising that
1) You have sleet and not rain
2) This 850 map....it is below freezing at 700 as well. You can see the 925's trying to push up through 2/3 of PA that is advection not temps.)
]\]\
That will be the time to do a shovel. I have looking forward to the workout. Many have heard this before, but I have a 1/8th of a mile driveway and I shove.
These folks are halfway toward Goldsboro. He sent me a picture and the roads have no snow and the grass is not close to being covered. More like the lanco people are reporting.