Bubbler86

Since I move back in 2018, this area as been stuck in a loop of a Dan Fogelberg song. Understand the frustration. The ma groups talks about is like we are in a winter wonderland up here.

90MPH is common in Florida. Maybe you need even farther south.

SPC not highlighting it yet, but the red circled area of PA could see some lower scaled moderate severe storms with the enxt system....as temps are modeled to surge to 55-60 combined with some instability, storms could act to mix down the damaging wind we all keep talking about.

Mt PSU only had about 1" yesterday.

Looks like you are in the tail end of the CCB

The EC let him down too.

Those of us that did well today have a very water logged snow pack waiting to melt out as well. I think the drought denting is official.

Yea, I had attributed that to you in another post. I remembered your post. It is a good example of each model having merit at some point. Let's face it, many here want snow and it is the natural human tendency to gravitate toward what gives you what you want. There are many, many examples where the hrrr 6 hours out was so wrong, it is laughable but today it ended up being valuable. That leads us to the real issue...how do we know when a model is going to excel when it is just as likely to falter.

He is still one of few words. Good memory. You remember so much more than I do.

TQ/Towering Q's is still around. He will not post here but runs a snow contest every year. Talk about your smart weather people.

I thought Joe was a great guy....though very eccentric. But he had the pests lists I thought. Jack was a troll. One of the early internet trolls. When this was going on, the "board" was melting down....a lot of fighting and I think we all participated in some of it.

Lol. The other JB. Joe Bartlo. RIP again.

Dude called me at home once. Weird.....

Except my anti ensemble rant recently, much of which is in jest because of the back and forth with blizz and I, I think they all have their positive sides and strong suits. My first winter back (18-19) we had a series of storms that would cut and bring front end snow and ice to this area and the icon was uncanny in predicting their eventual tracks....better than any of the other globals. So, when people mock the icon it rubs me sometimes as no one seems to remember when it had that strong winter. I think we can all point out times most models had strong showing...just today someone, I think mjs, Hailed the hrrr for its long rang accuracy.

At the start it was great. I would compare it to FB. Kids loved FB until whack people figured out it was there and then it went to hell. But the ne.weather and ne.weather.moderated groups spawned a lot of the people on this board.

Lots of folks will swear that you cannot count on a global to properly deal with questionable thermal situations due to their lower resolution which can lead to smoothed over temp and Qpf outputs. That certainly has merit but outside the nams late save today, how did the high res meso's do?

RIP. Psu on the MA board reminds me of Scott though PSU is less edgy.

PS-I did not know Ralph Wiggum was "the" Steve b from back then. Just found out this week.

It became an embarassment.

I was there. Scott Simard and I were telling anyone that would listen that we had to watch the situation. I wish I remembered more about that night and the days leading up to it.

It was not the only one that nam was king but I am not even sure the nam nailed it. Maybe it did....I stayed up all night watching the miracle happen but 24 years has worn away at the what I used to know. Might have to do some review. This whole topic and mitchnick's comment about the new euro. If someone unknowledagble about models asked me to tell them which on was really "King" I would have a hard time picking any of them. They all struggle at times.

It was 24 years ago but do you remember being surprised that a bombing low, which was was supposed to escape, came knocking at your beach?

Does anyone remember what the euro was showing for the Jan 2000 surprise snow? Almost nothing showed what happened but different suites were different levels of wrong. I was heavily involved in tracking it (Mitchnick probably was as well) but I truly do not remember euro watching with it.

That is what the nams are good at from history of these marginal situations. It took them until the last minute though. They were doing their namming's last night. Lol. I was very surprised by all the sleet and glad the nws said as such too. Makes me think even more was modeled incorrectly. I may be off in saying this but how often do we get a properly modeled snowstorm anymore? For me, the mystery keeps me engaged some. What did they mess up this time?

I did not mean to sound negative vs. Inquisative on finding value from an ensemble so close to game time but yea the euro op must have underestimated the warm push. If that rain we got (or sleet) had been snow then this map may be under done.