Bubbler86

6Z 3k still one of the higher totals as it keeps it snow much longer in questionable areas (although only about 3" here.)

28/22 here. Rgem is now one of the lower runs I just saw in running through stuff as it pushes rain up near the Poconos. More snow in Lanco than Central PA. Kind of weird. Here is the latest HRRR which has getting into the MSV but stiff nice Kuch totals. Most models have it changing pretty quick over here now. I might go out and shovel when the changeover occurs just to get a shovel in. GFS upped totals a bit in areas that do not change quickly. Also, GFS showing a lot of freezing rain which is also weird with these thermals.

Yea, pretty low DP's right now. Mine rose 2-3 degrees but was pretty low to start.

Here is the Skew-T for the rain period I showed...and it is rain because of a decent area of the column including the 850's failing. Case can be made it is too close to make that call and intensity could overcome.

I actually do not have any numbers other than intuition that WB maps are inflated a bit with snow but that is not the issue here, the GFS is a rainstorm for a good bit of the southern LSV on Pivotal so it is not accums vs. fairly large difference in ground truth. I guess it goes to show the tenuous day ahead for tracking tomorrow.

Guessing Wb does not have a panel like this then. I cannot say who is right as to the precip algorithms.

The pivotal map is MUCH lower than this in the areas that turned to rain. Some totals are 60-70% lower. I am not going to post it because it is bad.

GFS is not a good map to show. Throw it out.

GFS focuses on the southern SLP as primary a bit earlier this run. Edit-but still changes much of the LSV over to rain or mix. I know, global on short term....

Lots of low 20's temps throughout the LSV. A cold one. Near 20 in North Central Lanco as they prepare their defenses for the Heat Miser south wind.

22/19 here. DP up quite a bit. Pretty consistent 18-23 DP across most stations in the LSV.

It is all relative. Rgem lost 3-5 inches for much of the LSV (from the runs at 6Z) but basically meshing with the other models now. Still looks good I think. Rgem was too high. FV3 gained 3" in some areas it was too low in.

You might owe them snow by tomorrow am.

3k looked much better than the papa on my small phone view. I think the 12 took me down to 2 or 3"

Hey, it has been a lot of months since I remember seeing you post welcome back. Lol

23/15.

A broom cleanup for some? Canderson with the shade.

29/17 here.

Not directed at you, just documentation for the court case... Icon Today on top, Icon from Monday (same time period) below

The new Rap upped most people in the questionable area.

True, if we all get 8-12 then the Canadian does get a nice win on this one.

If we can post experimental models (no offense) we can post the Rap...in addition, give me one model that has performed even close to acceptable with this situation? Just one.

We are hanging it all on the line at this point. About time for the usual RAP post:

I was more talking final accums, no time to jump in right now but Adams county/Western York were well in the pink at 12Z. I hate to say "it's noise" but probably the case here.

GFS was actually a step back for you and I but who cares at this point. Better for Northern Lanco and MDT areas