Bubbler86

For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking. The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run. This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday. I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly. The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run. 24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast. On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry. And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster. 12-18 hours faster. I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still. That is a cop out answer, sorry.

I cannot keep up with the bouncing ball (models). The GFS keeps rotating between a stronger low that finds a weakness and cuts to KY or OH to its current iteration of a low getting to the SE Coast then jumping into the DelMarVa with a solid but quick moving wall of moisture.

State College went from having Nick Saban as their coach to having James Franklin as to 12Z accums vs 18Z.

I hope you are joking. LOL. Check out this compare from 12 to 18Z. 12 has a dying primary/ULL in Ohio. 18 has little precip in far SW PA because there was little prescence in the Oh Valley. Weaker and faster low.

Helps you guys a ton. I just bounced between some maps and it is weaker. Just a little worried in what it does from hour 96 to 102. That is quite the transfer.

Parts of the MA panic room can wind down again.

18Z GFS back to a Miller A/almost Southern slider but does hammer the LSV. Little to no OH Valley Prescence. It almost escaped...close call. Northern PA mostly left. Fast mover so only 4-8" despite some good rates. The changes are fairly drastic from 12Z. No time to dissect, sure someone will do it.

I have to do something to counteract the silly comments I get about not using guidance past a certain hour....this after watching the big boys flip and flop today.

NAM AT RANGE WARNING----NAM AT RANGE WARNING At 84 hours the SLP is on the cusp of the Gulf near New Orleans in a very similar position as the 12Z CMC. The approaching High is displaced a bit East vs, the CMC. Looking at 500H it is going to go North East in some manner but would be guess work to suggest how.

I have to travel Saturday so I have other interests I am watching as well. This has gone from an overnight thing to at least half it it during the day here.

I have seen other talking about speeding things up. EC is snowing here (at least virga) around lunch on Sat now. A jump up of probably 3-4 hours.

SE LSV mixes on the Pivotal panels. Cannot blame TT for that one. It is after the big thump but surely holds down totals some.

Did not notice, sorry. I was looking at the areas that went down to 1-3"

I think we are starting to worry a bit here.

Parts of the MA lost over 1/2 foot.

Yea, it is not worth too much stress over worrying. Carlisle asked me where I saw it change to rain so I passed it on. This pivotal snow map is also indicative of precip issues near the M/D line. Those could definitely include super low ratio snow like you mentioned since this is a Kuch map. Those circled areas are common first fall area when losing one or more level. I am in the far left one so very familiar with the look. If you switch to a 10-1 map you do not see the same layered intrusion signatures vs. more elevation related differences. The meso's will tell the story like you said :-). Kuch 10-1

Good info/map I just grabbed from the MA. NBM probabilities since we have been talking about the blend of models today.

Here is a skew-t from TT when it is showing rain in much of the LSV. Definitely model site differences in interpreting the data but the Kuch snow map on Pivotal does look like one that shows the southern parts of PA had mixing issues regardless of the preip maps so it is close. I do not have WB.

Different model sites use different algorithm's for the precip type. Here is TT showing the changeover. Pivotal's maps do not show the same, but they decreased snow in this same area from the 0z run that was pretty much all snow.

I charge to email people so might be a wash. I am like an attorney without the law degree.

I will ask tomorrow and see what you think then.

The GFS does drop warning level snows before any change over so not terrible...to clarify. Just not a strictly snow system with the proximity of the vort. Almost no snow for MA cities.

CMC is a PA crusher. SLP enters the Atlantic off the NC/VA coast. Large change from 0Z. GFS is more Miller B like again and not ideal for parts of South Central PA.