Bubbler86

Lot of theatrics with transferring lows with the Feb 5th event on the 12Z GFS but still missing one major performer even if it comes farther north....real cold air.

I found it interesting that someone posted on the NWS official site looking for reasons why El Nino was not "working."

Effects of MJO on Afghanistan PERMALINK Thanks for a fascinating read. I'm working on agricultural development in Afghanistan. A wet winter had been predicted - putting an end to a long drought usually blamed on La Niña - but so far there has been no precipitation at all. Could that be related to the MJO effect? Unfortunately your maps don't cover Afghanistan. REPLY SUBMITTED BY KLUIJVER, ROBERT ON MON, 01/15/2024 - 09:06 I think it's challenging to… PERMALINK I think it's challenging to say whether a seasonal forecast is a "bust" or a "failure" in mid-January. Also keep in mind these outlooks are probabilistic, so they will not happen 100% of the time. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2024-el-nino-update-birds#:~:text=El Niño is very likely,for the next few months.

I think just one decent snow event is better than last winter down here. Temp wise though as to seasonal average departure, it has been warmer at MDT this winter. Last year through the end of Jan, MDT was running at a departure of the 3.85 AN vs the current departure of 4.6 AN

I personally did not see a lot of conceding but if one takes the LR Ensembles to heart, 2 of the 3 show very little in the way of "winter cold" for our area over the next 2-3 weeks.

I am not, my comments were more about the struggles of trying to do LR forecasting. A lot of LR forecasts I saw, here and other areas, really focused on late Jan and all of Feb for the hounds of winter.

I guess I was more basing my comments on the more enthusiastic forecasts seen by some of the people that like to do LR. There often seems to be one factor that was not accounted for, and it turns into a learning experience. Much the same as the yearly Tropical Storm forecasts IMO.

As mentioned yesterday, I do not like to dabble into the indices forecasting too much but will say again that I think people who forecast LR have a LONG way to go before it is even close to being a science per se. Because I cannot/do not do it, I am not casting stones, but it seems that each time too much emphasis is placed on one indicator or another and we often come out with posts like yours showing where it went wrong (in this case wrong to this point.)

Happy Valentines Day! The drought is over for the short term. If we have our typical overly dry 4-5 month period later this year I suspect, we go back in to D1 but all clear for now.

Since we are looking into grades and what not, 3 days to go until we are 2/3 of the way through met winter and with Jan bordering on being 4AN we stand at an average of 4.6 AN for both months of winter so far. Pretty ugly.

I am still shoveling the digital snow that the ops and ensembles have dropped on Rou.

<Lionchoking.gif>

At least you could have done 5 min worth of Photoshop to type bubbler on it.

The probably failed Bubbler snow...licking my wounds on that one.

I was not saying punting was right or not or who was saying it a certain way, just that anyone that says things with little room for options sets up failure if using 300 hour models to make the definitive statement. I mostly stay out of the LR game as I do not enjoy that part of it. When I post LR maps it is more about fun than real forecasting. I was actually saying your opinion is as valid as anyone else's and that includes the holy grail of LR forecasting in the MA. Lots of people there who are great at discussing patterns but IMO the end results on the ground are not often progged well.

Well, I have said this before but will say it again, to me a 300+ hour ensemble 500H map is not much (if any at all) more or less likely to be right than an op 500H map except that there will be less severe gyrations between runs. I say this only to point out that said forecasters could be right or punting could be right but if said as an opinion vs. a definitive statement, it comes across better. To this specific point, you have evidence that models are forecasting a better pattern so let's hope...

Time for an ego blower?

Looks like the HH GFS is still enamored with Jacksonville. How in the hell do they fit 5 H's in/near Cananda!

We are close to an inch, but the steady rain is about to wrap up here in the next hour or so.

Rain and 34. Ouch.

That sounds like the plot for the movie Face Off.

I am not saying anything you said is wrong, just having fun as that map has slp's all over the place.

Jacksonville is in the game on that mlsp map.

In my mind, it is really the only thing we have where the column is going to be cold enough for snow at the start. Tomorrow was just such a long shot....this next one has NS and SS energy and column JUST cold enough air in place. The Nam has snow showers tomorrow night, but surface temps are in the mid 30's.

Definitely not what I had in mind for the Bubbler storm, but HH scraps is all we have right now.