Bubbler86

12Z GFS has another bowling ball rainstorm turned snowstorm, like it did yesterday...different time frame though. Some very large-scale synoptic changes on each run right now so just for entertainment.

Had some flurries here but sky is clearing now. 36.

31 this AM breaking the no below freezing streak of a week or so.

I share my worry about the ob we are speaking to here. I have been in the 90's dozens of times over the last few years.

The GEPS has 25% of its members getting accum snow to at least parts of the LSV for 2/5. Unlikely still but blinds remain open.

The first accum snow of the pattern change can get a map or two!

Tim, to clarify. The poster who earlier today was worried about weather on the 7th planet from the sun, pushes back on East Nantmeal all the time.

Welcome if you can answer one question right....How much for Dubois?

Hopefully Blizz gets off work in time to post that 12Z GFS Snow map...before the 18Z comes out.

GFS 300 is interesting for a potential bowling ball, but it is the GFS 300.

Congrats Waynesboro....VA. And the Atlantic Ocean.

Using the forum to act out.

6Z GFS PBP of Feb 5th (non for here) event. Depicts the convoluted nature of what is going on there. Low positions are center of lowest pressure. Hour 144 NW Miss and East of Jax Hour 150 NE of Miami Hour 156-174 off SE SC Coast Hour 180 CUBA...El Presidente.

Ditto. Has not been below freezing here in quite some time.

Assuming that means they are going to be upgrading the control -OR- running all ensembles at a higher res? I read the EC team is hosting some of the events at the currently running AMS conference.

Did a Ladybug land on your shoe today?

You might need to take a trip to see Brooklyn of 93.

Could definitely make its own cold air from above and really that small batch of 850's under 0 over us sort of depicts that.... just kind of crazy to be thinking snow with 850's failed into Canada.

If this panel does not scream snow, I am not sure what else we could hope for (snark). When the high itself has lots 850's, that is worrisome. LOL.

Sounds like the makings of the excuse for a Florida road trip for you. You can get into the eye and give us live pressure readings to make sure there is no missing data.

I was looking for a way to get another Met's name in there. LOL. But as progged it is a dead deal on the GFS and CMC unless it comes at us from the East in some manner.

If it does come North from an inland SE US location, where will the cold air come from? It is technically cold enough on those panels and there is some CAD, but any sort of southerly component with a storm approaching from the SW would ruin the column anyway. We would need it to maintain distinct different areas of lowest pressure and get off to our SE before a Fujiwhara effect (thanks Sakuhei Fuhiwhara) to bring it back toward us off the ocean, so we do not lose temps. (Edit, and we need that high to not depart as quickly)

Lot of theatrics with transferring lows with the Feb 5th event on the 12Z GFS but still missing one major performer even if it comes farther north....real cold air.

I found it interesting that someone posted on the NWS official site looking for reasons why El Nino was not "working."

Effects of MJO on Afghanistan PERMALINK Thanks for a fascinating read. I'm working on agricultural development in Afghanistan. A wet winter had been predicted - putting an end to a long drought usually blamed on La Niña - but so far there has been no precipitation at all. Could that be related to the MJO effect? Unfortunately your maps don't cover Afghanistan. REPLY SUBMITTED BY KLUIJVER, ROBERT ON MON, 01/15/2024 - 09:06 I think it's challenging to… PERMALINK I think it's challenging to say whether a seasonal forecast is a "bust" or a "failure" in mid-January. Also keep in mind these outlooks are probabilistic, so they will not happen 100% of the time. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2024-el-nino-update-birds#:~:text=El Niño is very likely,for the next few months.