Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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It is just the national anthem of a failed winter (we have not failed this winter yet though.)
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I will go ahead and say it so it is out there and we can be done with seeing it, March will be rockin'!
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Yea, even Met Spring is still over 40 days. We just passed the midpoint of winter one week ago.
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12z is only hours away. Fake punt?
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Many of the last few winters. Ha. If we miss all our chances after this weekend and do have a warm first week of Feb, I remain hopeful after that. I personally cannot take models, even if just patterns, too seriously out past 10 days. Any 300 hour GFS postings from me are for entertainment.
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I was never that hopeful for the 28th but the length of the next cold spell starting this weekend really depends on a mechanism to tap the "PV" to our North East. We are back in trouble again after whatever period the cold lasts.
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The GFS capitulating to making the 28th low an inland runner and not sending it up to be a new 50/50 is not helpful for early Feb cold. The 0Z was truly ugly and more matches the painful look on the Ensemble anomalies. 12Z yesterday 6Z Today
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Hit 70 in Philly tonight.
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Actually, it is a step back initially, but the cold air is deeper and more widespread as we get into later panels.
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HH is definitely a step back as to cold the first week of Feb. Not alarming but slows the roll a bit of the "winter is coming back with a vengeance" of the 12Z.
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I was opening the blinds farther.
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It would have been a good one but plus 300 so not many details.
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No one mentioned the Feb 7th Wham-Jam on the 12Z GFS? Not because it will happen or it is real that far out, just because the blinds.
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Well, the snowpack did quite well here today. All roofs still covered. Snow drifted parts of the driveway are still snow drifted. Any rain tomorrow will break it down though.
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CMC and Icon and suggesting near 70 in far southern LSV.
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Speaking of the RRFS and others, it does have some snow accums in the MSV tomorrow...maybe a tad farther north than the posters here but close.
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The Rgem and RRFS do show icing with the precip shield farther south that some other mesos. Unless the 2M temps are off I think it would be short-lived as temps are 31-33.
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Just like saying winter was over to Mid Feb, on the opposite side JB's language leaves himself wide open to be wrong.
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Yea, model wise the highs are not too bad for the next 7-10 days...a couple more extreme days, but lots of double digit AN lows. Almost the entire first week of Feb is BN on the Op GFS.
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Down to 8 here now. THV hit 0.
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I was wondering if you might make a run for 0 but just the same, Rgem with the nice call for out of the city temps last night. It is in its wheelhouse with low wind/high pressures overhead.
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They have a haunted history, it is unfortunate. 10 degrees this Am.
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Laces out.
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7AM temps for tomorrow AM near MDT: HRRR-19 RRFS-18 3K-16 NWS Zones-10 RGEM-6
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MR GFS so just a discussion and not a forecast, the coldest air on our side of the Northern Hemisphere is close enough to us from Jan 29-Feb 4th to merit watching for anything. MDT does not go above 43-45 any day and some days stays below or right near freezing all day. Central and Western Canada folks are using their outdoor swimming pools (because they are crazy) during some of this time.
