Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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It is significant even with the fact that it is warping into an elongated low so it could appear north quickly on a panel. Look at the precip shield below. 12Z first, 17Z second. Snow is farther south and the rain in S VA is mixed with snow due to the lesser push of warm air.
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We are at 34 right now so getting close to a 20-degree climb. Airports still near 30 though.
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The latest HRRR is a bit south from 12Z. A good thing IMO as to avoiding a Miller B disaster.
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That was why I added the ending...looks great but it is the srefs meaning I would not use it to adjust my forecast. Lot's of uncommonly used meso's in there. Wrf's, etc...
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A bit of a congrats to the HRRR as several other meso's stayed near 30 today. HRRR was touting 35-40 over there.
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A southerners Jackpot delight...though it is the Srefs.
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Not too shabby for East LSV.
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The MA thread seems quite happy with the south trend. Anyone have the NBM to post?
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Mostly cloudy and 30 at noon. First time out of the 20's in several days.
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Well, the 3K was way below on snow totals for the LSV which is what I was referring to. Nam 12 was about 1" below the higher totals to our East. Nam 12 was surely acceptable but I am a bit surprised most runs after the Nam were 1-3.
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The HRRR was by far the high point of 12Z so far.
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GFS transfers to the SE Coast quite early and the resulting SLP remains fairly week as it traverses Northeast fairly far off shore....snow map below but a note of caution with this one is that it requires the coastal influence to get these levels in SC and East PA. Technically there is no snow in those areas when the lowest level of pressure moves offshore. Would probably be some snow with the 500 pass but probably not this much if the coastal scoots faster. Miller B fun.
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About time to roll out some Ensemble snow maps! :-)
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Icon a quick mover....1-3" on Pivotal for almost all of Eastern PA.
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3K is focusing the higher totals south of the M/D line.
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Models not saying it gets there but near 30. That seems too warm for 20-1 ratios. Great snowmaking above though with 850's very cold.
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Yep, it is strange but the deep blues were suggestive of more.....about 1" less than the HRRR where the HRRR showed higher areas in the LSV. Snow all the way down to shortpump. Generally, 2-4" for most of S Central PA.
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Yea, I was speaking how it will make them excited as well. QPF surprisingly low though. Only .2 through 30. Radar looked better.
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THE HRR which was the crowd pleasure so far is maybe 12 or 13-1. .4" qpf and under 5" of snow for Harrisburg. Too warm for 20-1 IMO.
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NAM is very Pro MA. Going to make them happy.
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It is fairly exciting to see the meso's approving each run even if I personally may be a bit too far west.
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@Chris78 the HRRR was close to giving us the best snows....if it has delayed elongating/transfer another hour or two we get near 4" I think. As it is we do get dry slotted compared to those east of us.
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3-5" for the central and Southern LSV. Close or under 3" for some of the North LSV and MSV as well as just to the West of the LSV.
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A pretty nice run IMO...still snowing in the Eastern LSV at 22Z. Going to be a crowd pleaser for the LSV with the snow maps.
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Snow dissipating over Western PA at 2PM but definitely some coastal influence for Eastern PA as snow picks up the pace a bit.
