Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Icon a quick mover....1-3" on Pivotal for almost all of Eastern PA.
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3K is focusing the higher totals south of the M/D line.
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Models not saying it gets there but near 30. That seems too warm for 20-1 ratios. Great snowmaking above though with 850's very cold.
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Yep, it is strange but the deep blues were suggestive of more.....about 1" less than the HRRR where the HRRR showed higher areas in the LSV. Snow all the way down to shortpump. Generally, 2-4" for most of S Central PA.
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Yea, I was speaking how it will make them excited as well. QPF surprisingly low though. Only .2 through 30. Radar looked better.
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THE HRR which was the crowd pleasure so far is maybe 12 or 13-1. .4" qpf and under 5" of snow for Harrisburg. Too warm for 20-1 IMO.
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NAM is very Pro MA. Going to make them happy.
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It is fairly exciting to see the meso's approving each run even if I personally may be a bit too far west.
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@Chris78 the HRRR was close to giving us the best snows....if it has delayed elongating/transfer another hour or two we get near 4" I think. As it is we do get dry slotted compared to those east of us.
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3-5" for the central and Southern LSV. Close or under 3" for some of the North LSV and MSV as well as just to the West of the LSV.
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A pretty nice run IMO...still snowing in the Eastern LSV at 22Z. Going to be a crowd pleaser for the LSV with the snow maps.
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Snow dissipating over Western PA at 2PM but definitely some coastal influence for Eastern PA as snow picks up the pace a bit.
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Low dissipates/elongates/transfers around 16Z after sitting over WV for 6-7 hours. Still light snow in PA. 1006 forming off the NJ coast. Still a 500H representation back in N VA.
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Low stays almost stationary the next 2-3 hours as most of PA continues with light snow. Radar rep not great though and some holes in PA.
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Vort gains latitude the next 2 hours and in WV as most of PA snowing by 8Z. A weakling at 1007 so will not resist transferring.
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Vort in SE VA at 6Z tomorrow AM on the HRRR. Some light snow in far South Central and SW PA
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I have never been there but often see cars lined up looking for parking when I go by....circling like sharks. Close to noon of course.
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They could not find parking and ended up at Olive Garden.
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I would like to see the vort stay a bit further south. All of us would still get snow but would lessen our chances of vaporizing qpf. 12Z HRRR coming in and it is a little South and faster as compared to 6Z (at 1Z tonight.)
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Yea, I was mostly kidding on DT's map but some models have been showing us dry slotting so that is a concern. I still think temps will be near 30 for us. I like the 2-4 call right now (above the M/D line I think Sterling has you at 2-3 the last time I looked.)
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That is about where DT's map put you....close to the 2" line. I am solidly in the under 2" area. The advisory says 2-4" though.
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The HRRR has the parts of the LSV making a run for 35-40 today....not sure that happens with the snow cover. Something interesting to watch.
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Welcome back.
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Scanned through everything on Pivotal and pretty amazing how one spot, Harrisburg falls between 2.5-3.1" (Edit, just saw the 6Z Euro had 3.6") - on almost everything considered top line models. More consistent than some other systems which frequently had 1-2 defectors with higher or lower numbers. The 2-4 Advisory seems like the right call.
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I think 2016 is one of the Nam's moments where it rests on its Laurels. For me, a namming with this storm would have been at least 8-12" area wide. Many of the outputs last night were not far from the what the Rgem showed a couple days ago. 16 here this Am which is also the low for the day. Rose from 8-16 before midnight last night.
