The HRRR. It was showing the vort pass too far North for our liking and was risking a Miller B like transfer that would see our west moving snows dry up and turn into snow to our east.
Sure, I was refencing the AN/BN totals at MDT for January. The +5 right now is very high for this far into a month. It is going to be knocked down some over the next 3-5 days but if we have a warm last week, the final numbers will be toasty.
Just look at MDT's numbers for the month and they are STILL 5 AN...crazy. With the warm spell progged next week, the final numbers are going to be pretty ugly.
Nam 12 at 48. Not a ton of precip as shown. Not to the point of a full coastal influence yet so more to come. Fills in better at 51. Dry slot stays to our south.
SE LSV and NE MA may benefit from that the most...if it comes to fruition. That is what the GFS keeps trying to sell. Highs near freezing on Friday (southern locales) would limit the ratios a bit.