Bubbler86

A week or two I have no issue with. Punting into Mid-February on Jan 19th is just not my style (when I referenced some posts on the MA.) That long of a punt sounds like something the Dallas Cowboys would draw up. But after this Monday I think we are on the sidelines for cold for 7-10 days. Let's enjoy the heating bill break :-)

How much should we adjust that for Nugget Nectar's?

See my last post to Mitch. Why is it that when the pattern looks great 3 weeks out everyone (except someone in Marysville LOL) is cautious but when it sucks it is a done deal and always right. Maybe it will be sort of in between :-). I can quote you posts from 24-48 hours ago that sounded positive about early Feb. Just not looking great today.

Our models cannot always predict ANYTHING well past 10 days including patterns so I am not even going to say the pattern will suck early Feb....maybe it does and not saying you are wrong at all, just too far out to assume models are right.

I did not even see that when I put my foot down above. I am just not punting 4 weeks. That is a recipe for having to back track in mid winter.

It was great, I figured you got hit hard. Just east of Waynesboro near Waynescastle road they tacked on 2" in 45 min. We are at 4.75 here now.

That snip from the NWS talking about bands into the LSV tomorrow is legit....a chance someone near the Burg or even lower sees a topper tomorrow. The HRRR is showing instability in the early to midafternoon. Route 80 Alert day. And, despite PSU shutting the blinds for 3-4 weeks I am still sticking with chances in the 10 day frame. Chances for something sloppy, not cold like now.

We picked up 3/4" more here. Some areas just to the west of me are up to 6.5" now after getting 2" in one band. They are holding nicely down into the MA

We have picked up close to a 1/4" in the last 25-30 min. Coming down pretty good in a band. Down to 26. Roads are caving again.

If MDT had 4" new that would be the opposite of the usual complaint for them. They also only had .15 of qpf.

They have 4" listed on their snow depth but it was 2" before the snow started. They may be rounding some, but I do not think they are suggesting they got 4".

Looks like MDT is going with 2" for now...if their snow depth listing is correct. From latest CTP AFD The upper trough axis (which may be slightly cut-off) will be overhead tonight and swing to our east on Sat. The cold air being brought in on the northwest flow will generate plenty of lake effect and upslope snow showers. While the cross-Erie fetch may be short Sat, there will be a pronounced Huron connection to help bands survive deeper into the CWA. Several of the HREF members bring at least one such long-lived band as far south as Schuylkill and Lebanon counties Sat aftn. We`ve seen these some of these over the years, but they are rare. Have allowed for at least schc PoPs there in the aftn when instability will be maximized and fetch most-favorable.

We are way west of you....an hour or two. Me more so than Cash. Any freezing should be well after dark. Starting to wonder how much blowing we may have in the areas that got 3 or more "...if the snow has not melted a bit on the top.

We had about 4" a little back and up (elevation) from Rouzerville. In one of the developments going up the hill on Old Pen Mar Rd. I did not go up to Pen Mar today.

We had 3-4" on the road here as well. It was in the low 20's this AM.

Rgem is good at finding the nights that exceed low progs on other models...here is its next attempt. Has some minor support from the GFS. 5 in Richmond.

I saw this on MA so not going to take credit but seems legit....streamers forming as circled.

Definitely agree though still a matter of luck. I get a nice one and it would push me to WSW. I got all the current snow off my driveway before the arctic plunge got her.

930 Am on top...Now below. May be some mountain interference with radar but the snow to our west is definitely lessened. HRRR now suggest we are left with heavy snow showers/streamers this evening where someone could really jump an 1" fast.

Light snow and 32. Not really accumulating a lot. 32 degrees. Roads are wet now.

Falling at a decent clip here again. 3.9".

Lanco was really cut in half looking at the radar this Am. I bet there are some 4+ totals in the south side of the county. Sorry you did not get them.

One factor we talked about was temps. Up to 30 here and several places around the Valley. Still light snow and 3.4" now.

He used his trailer as a shield to avoid himself hitting the pole :-)

If you or I get 8 MORE inches from the ULL (not counting streamers that sit over someone later tonight, could be some lucky lottery winner) I will come shovel away Candersons plow drop snow.