Bubbler86

I would guess many of us were 15-1 but decreased a bit with the low accumulating light snow which still added some Qpf.

Ski Liberty is crazy. People lined up around the corner to park.

This system was a big win for us southern PA folks. I have shoveled 3 times in 2 weeks! Some people in DE ended up with 8-12"!

6Z GFS is a wonky evolution but still our next open chance of snow it would seem. The GEFS supports part of the evolution in that cold returns late Jan. A lot would depend on the 28th low (which is snow for part of PA in its own right) knocking down heights over the Eastern US as it departs in yet another 50/50 low hope. As depicted it gets into the mid to upper 20's in Central Florida the last day of Jan. The Euro does not develop the same energy for the 28th so it is not going to lead to nearly as much cold pulled down. It actually has a NS system cutting off the cold. CMC in between.

Glad some streamers made it down last night. Nothing new on this side. 11 degrees right now. 3K still shows some more snow today just Northeast of Harrisburg into Central Lancaster County plus much of the Western 1/3 of the state.

No, I said that you are not cautious and go gung-ho when patterns are good while many are cautious. When patterns appear bad, people line up to complain. I did not want to insult you and say all are cautious. You go for the gold.

A week or two I have no issue with. Punting into Mid-February on Jan 19th is just not my style (when I referenced some posts on the MA.) That long of a punt sounds like something the Dallas Cowboys would draw up. But after this Monday I think we are on the sidelines for cold for 7-10 days. Let's enjoy the heating bill break :-)

How much should we adjust that for Nugget Nectar's?

See my last post to Mitch. Why is it that when the pattern looks great 3 weeks out everyone (except someone in Marysville LOL) is cautious but when it sucks it is a done deal and always right. Maybe it will be sort of in between :-). I can quote you posts from 24-48 hours ago that sounded positive about early Feb. Just not looking great today.

Our models cannot always predict ANYTHING well past 10 days including patterns so I am not even going to say the pattern will suck early Feb....maybe it does and not saying you are wrong at all, just too far out to assume models are right.

I did not even see that when I put my foot down above. I am just not punting 4 weeks. That is a recipe for having to back track in mid winter.

It was great, I figured you got hit hard. Just east of Waynesboro near Waynescastle road they tacked on 2" in 45 min. We are at 4.75 here now.

That snip from the NWS talking about bands into the LSV tomorrow is legit....a chance someone near the Burg or even lower sees a topper tomorrow. The HRRR is showing instability in the early to midafternoon. Route 80 Alert day. And, despite PSU shutting the blinds for 3-4 weeks I am still sticking with chances in the 10 day frame. Chances for something sloppy, not cold like now.

We picked up 3/4" more here. Some areas just to the west of me are up to 6.5" now after getting 2" in one band. They are holding nicely down into the MA

We have picked up close to a 1/4" in the last 25-30 min. Coming down pretty good in a band. Down to 26. Roads are caving again.

If MDT had 4" new that would be the opposite of the usual complaint for them. They also only had .15 of qpf.

They have 4" listed on their snow depth but it was 2" before the snow started. They may be rounding some, but I do not think they are suggesting they got 4".

Looks like MDT is going with 2" for now...if their snow depth listing is correct. From latest CTP AFD The upper trough axis (which may be slightly cut-off) will be overhead tonight and swing to our east on Sat. The cold air being brought in on the northwest flow will generate plenty of lake effect and upslope snow showers. While the cross-Erie fetch may be short Sat, there will be a pronounced Huron connection to help bands survive deeper into the CWA. Several of the HREF members bring at least one such long-lived band as far south as Schuylkill and Lebanon counties Sat aftn. We`ve seen these some of these over the years, but they are rare. Have allowed for at least schc PoPs there in the aftn when instability will be maximized and fetch most-favorable.

We are way west of you....an hour or two. Me more so than Cash. Any freezing should be well after dark. Starting to wonder how much blowing we may have in the areas that got 3 or more "...if the snow has not melted a bit on the top.

We had about 4" a little back and up (elevation) from Rouzerville. In one of the developments going up the hill on Old Pen Mar Rd. I did not go up to Pen Mar today.

We had 3-4" on the road here as well. It was in the low 20's this AM.

Rgem is good at finding the nights that exceed low progs on other models...here is its next attempt. Has some minor support from the GFS. 5 in Richmond.

I saw this on MA so not going to take credit but seems legit....streamers forming as circled.

Definitely agree though still a matter of luck. I get a nice one and it would push me to WSW. I got all the current snow off my driveway before the arctic plunge got her.

930 Am on top...Now below. May be some mountain interference with radar but the snow to our west is definitely lessened. HRRR now suggest we are left with heavy snow showers/streamers this evening where someone could really jump an 1" fast.