Unfortunately, the globals are not cooperating in showing additional phasing/moving the trough away from extremely positive for any prospective event the 31 Jan -2nd of Feb time period.
Think this was mentioned before but Nam would be hammering for parts of the LSV if the column was just slightly cooler. As is there is someone in PA who could get a lot of wet snow. Surprised with its evolution.
Not often that primary gets to Erie and southern PA sees snow.
The 12Z EPS Extended Mean Average Anomaly MSLP Members panel has most members suggesting you will do this on February 2nd. The Control suggests Jan 27th though.
To the surprise of many (not really) the late MR and LR Op GFS is drastically different than the run earlier today. Does not mean either are right but what was an almost negatively tilted trough off the east coast on Feb 6 is now a ridge poking down from Canada.
GFS closer than the ICON. A rare SE moving coastal (or several areas of lowest pressure) after this panel. The coastal is forming as the clipper arrives so grab your Millers and drink up.
Still not there or really even close but this was the time period that I thought the 28th low could set us up for. Somewhat cold air would be in place. Have energy in both streams...500 just not good enough yet.
I was going to question TCC's comment, but it brings back the old thought from earlier this year...what is warm and what is cold. Both sides have merits. To me, 40-45 is not warm any time of the year but it is AN.