To the surprise of many (not really) the late MR and LR Op GFS is drastically different than the run earlier today. Does not mean either are right but what was an almost negatively tilted trough off the east coast on Feb 6 is now a ridge poking down from Canada.
GFS closer than the ICON. A rare SE moving coastal (or several areas of lowest pressure) after this panel. The coastal is forming as the clipper arrives so grab your Millers and drink up.
Still not there or really even close but this was the time period that I thought the 28th low could set us up for. Somewhat cold air would be in place. Have energy in both streams...500 just not good enough yet.
I was going to question TCC's comment, but it brings back the old thought from earlier this year...what is warm and what is cold. Both sides have merits. To me, 40-45 is not warm any time of the year but it is AN.
We have some piles as well, but it is not raw. I just checked WU and, in our case, there is an inversion going on as the higher temps are just elevations but in York and Lanco the higher temps are coming up from the south in valleys as well.
Pretty much, but as ITT mentioned, not saying no snow just not a blockbuster. Right or wrong, it is like saying the movie for the next month is going to be Ace Ventura: When Nature calls and not Ace Ventura: Pet Detective.
MU "Kenny" Elliott only said his block buster snow forecast for Feb is in trouble. He really only said the trouble is through mid-Feb. Sounds a lot like some other posters so not super extreme even if a pivot back.
CMC/Rgem still calling for some LSV 70's Friday. Someone else, I think MJS, reported the chance of records but more max lows I think...a high of 70 at MDT would not break the record of 73 set in 1950. The Rgem predicted max min of 54 or 54 would demolish the old record of 45.
It is rare for him to reverse course like this. He is not always right but usually moves on vs. changing from what I have seen. If we do not have a snowy end to winter, one group in another forum is going to be ugly.
It is surprising he would punt for 3-4 weeks. Something you see here more often but not from him as much. 2 weeks is a long time in the weather world. A month is an uber long time.
I knew that, not sure why I thought Bills. Guess the two heartbreaking losses intermingled in my head. Hopefully the Pack does not have a Thurman Thomas lost his helmet story to blame for any of their past.
The Nam scored a home run with its Hurricane Ian forecast including being the first main line model to show the storm exiting off the East Coast and not destroying N Central Florida.
Signed- HNSIC (Head Nam Sympathizer In Charge. )