Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Low dissipates/elongates/transfers around 16Z after sitting over WV for 6-7 hours. Still light snow in PA. 1006 forming off the NJ coast. Still a 500H representation back in N VA.
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Low stays almost stationary the next 2-3 hours as most of PA continues with light snow. Radar rep not great though and some holes in PA.
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Vort gains latitude the next 2 hours and in WV as most of PA snowing by 8Z. A weakling at 1007 so will not resist transferring.
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Vort in SE VA at 6Z tomorrow AM on the HRRR. Some light snow in far South Central and SW PA
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I have never been there but often see cars lined up looking for parking when I go by....circling like sharks. Close to noon of course.
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They could not find parking and ended up at Olive Garden.
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I would like to see the vort stay a bit further south. All of us would still get snow but would lessen our chances of vaporizing qpf. 12Z HRRR coming in and it is a little South and faster as compared to 6Z (at 1Z tonight.)
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Yea, I was mostly kidding on DT's map but some models have been showing us dry slotting so that is a concern. I still think temps will be near 30 for us. I like the 2-4 call right now (above the M/D line I think Sterling has you at 2-3 the last time I looked.)
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That is about where DT's map put you....close to the 2" line. I am solidly in the under 2" area. The advisory says 2-4" though.
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The HRRR has the parts of the LSV making a run for 35-40 today....not sure that happens with the snow cover. Something interesting to watch.
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Welcome back.
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Scanned through everything on Pivotal and pretty amazing how one spot, Harrisburg falls between 2.5-3.1" (Edit, just saw the 6Z Euro had 3.6") - on almost everything considered top line models. More consistent than some other systems which frequently had 1-2 defectors with higher or lower numbers. The 2-4 Advisory seems like the right call.
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I think 2016 is one of the Nam's moments where it rests on its Laurels. For me, a namming with this storm would have been at least 8-12" area wide. Many of the outputs last night were not far from the what the Rgem showed a couple days ago. 16 here this Am which is also the low for the day. Rose from 8-16 before midnight last night.
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I thought you were near MDT. I just did a point and click and it says high of 29 which is in line with most models....maybe a degree or two low.
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I am just kidding about the namming...it was a namming well East of here over your way and east. Philly thread is Pro Nam.
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Icon has more for me than the Nam did. Mitch too. That was not a right proper namming. Need to be 3X higher than any other model...LOL.
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It did seem high but THV being 19 or 20 gave me pause to question it.
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We got down to 9 at 8PM but up to 14 now. Our low last year was -3 so that will stand for the night it appears. You are 18-20 below MDT right now! THV also up 2 degrees in the last hour. SW winds starting to bring in some milder air.
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The naming gave me 2-3". Mdt 4.3". I hope future model runs get a bit more for us. South Lsv 2-3".
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Surprised the temps still not being talked about. Could be 35ish down there.
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Down to 13 here.
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Just one model but 25 seems dubious at this point.
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I think we are leaning toward 1-3 vs. 2-4.
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The roofus keeps drying slotting the southern tier....experimental but putting up for compare.
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It is not going to be that cold down our way per progs. Near 28-32.
