Bubbler86

77 here already.

https://medium.com/@sydelbrown/why-would-someone-willingly-call-themselves-a-dink-6e67a5e13fab

After your anti-model post the other day, this one has been a proof in the pudding event for you.

It appears that MDT has not recorded any precip, outside T's today, meaning we are still very much locked in as the driest Sept ever. A chance of some rain tomorrow but outside that still something to watch. Progs promise to push us out of the record holder position with rain....wait for it...7-10 days away from now.

Today's totals only but not much last night for most. Pretty low key. Up to a staggering .08" here.

More sexual innuendos.

That's what she said. .04" so far. AM models are caving to the dryer solutions. 0Z EC vs. yesterday 12Z. Nearly 3" drops in some places.

The shaft on that map would be 8-14" for the LSV and Skooks. (10:1)

WGAL really downplaying rain chances. Had around .4" far West LSV and close to nothing East and North of Harrisburg. Removing the low and high outliers, this map seems to depict what a lot of the middle ground progs are showing right now as to general areas where it would rain harder or longer.

12Z GFS says rain is primarily done in PA until October. Several other non-American Progs are much wetter.

We are who we thought we were.

Short Pump smack down.

And how does the Eagles defense let a gimpy Cousins scorch them in that final drive? I felt my own legs hurting watching Cousins tip toe around out there.

Speaking of ugly....Barkley. Cannot believe he dropped that.

The icon and nam 12 are now both very wet for much of southern PA in the next 48 hours. It is like a soap opera of models.

I was replying to your second question re: why they could be doing worse, at least on ground truth, over time. But like Mitch said I always thought the scoring was primarily UL based and not on day-to-day weather on the ground.

Weather models perform their work with calculations based on current data and past/historical data. The current data is always flawed by weather stations that are not working correctly or missing data so there is one hole there. Secondly, if our environment is warming as many here believe, where does that leave the validity of historical data suggesting what happened before will happen again? Some argue that newer models use atmospheric physics but said physics are governed but history whether scientists want to admit it or not. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2021/12/warming-makes-weather-less-predictable

I had a gust of 37 but more sustained in the teens near 20.

Nooners...mostly cloudy and 65. Very windy, a bit too much to be comfortable. Just noticed this post from MU last week. He will have had a good call if the current trend continues and whatever rain we may get also goes to the wayside. Refer to Tuesday's discussion below for more in-depth details on the quiet pattern. Looking ahead into the middle and latter part of next week, the forecast remains rife with uncertainty. A storm system may develop along an old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the Florida/Georgia coastline from Monday into Tuesday, but it's equally as likely that it doesn't. Even if development occurs, the "Rex Block" over the Northeast may keep the system offshore or force it westward into the Carolinas or southern mid-Atlantic States. Only if the block weakens more quickly than anticipated could the system track northward and veer into the Delmarva Region and southern PA. Usually, blocking patterns of this nature take a long time to break down, and their strength and duration are often underestimated by computer models. I expect this case to be no exception and, as a result, lean toward a dry outcome and continuation of partly-to-mostly sunny and warm weather next Wednesday-Friday. However, this is just my gut instinct (from experience) and by no means a lock, so check back on Tuesday for an update. As I always like to say: "Only time will tell." In the meantime, enjoy the spectacular weather this weekend, and lather on the sunscreen!

The Nam and Fv3 have nothing of note over my way. Discouraging.

It is a but uncanny and unfortunate the way qpf seems to be missing us more times than not. It is widely known that I am all over the "drought band wagon" but imagine where we would be had the Aug 7-9th time frame never happened. I still think it rains some in the next 2 days, but the area wide soaker theory is tough to see happening now. In defense of the models this was a very winter storm like situation where something was forming off the SE coast and the timing and eventual track was always in question due to the lack of data until the system formed. Model watching is indeed a lot of gambling if you go all in and proclaim it as fact when speaking to people who listen to your weather chops. When models are stated as fact, you probably have a good 50/50 chance of being wrong. For a lot of people (JI comes to the forefront) the model watching is really the bigger deal and the actual weather that happens is the under card.

I think they did fairly well in the mid and long term, but yea models really change drastically short term more than I think they used to. You and I were chatting about this system a good 5-7 days ago. It has been a constant struggle over the last week in how much the pig ridge was going to push this thing south of us.

They did get to 80-81 today.

MDT bagged an 86 today. Mid-summer temps.

This has been the warmest mid Sept since I moved back in 2018; Mid-Summer temps. Having to water the plants twice a day.