Bubbler86

Just hit 80 here. MDT may make mid 80's today.

Yea, though there are still plenty of days in the lows 80's on the GFS and CMC MR and LR so may not be frost on the early pumpkin yet.

He stated that he cannot spare a drop. The Great Fall Drought of 2024 has hammered him too

Some progs are just an all-out rainy weekend starting afternoon Saturday through all of Sunday....as the LSV gets into the periphery of the influence from the coastal low. Other are more convection based. Fingers crossed our dry spell ends this weekend. MDT has been on a heater of late with 7 of the last 8 days AN and the current monthly average has dipped down to just -1/1 BN after the chilly start to the month. Still only .16 of qpf for the month. Only 1.21" here since August 9th which I believe makes this the second driest period for my area since the drought of 2020.

Yep, got to 87 here. Someone posted this Am today would be the last day in the 80's. GFS has low to mid 80's tomorrow and Sat.

It is interaction from the system earlier this week with a wave and front. Interesting to keep an eye on. Some Progs are a most of two days rain out.

A rainy late Sat/early Sunday on 12Z runs.

77 here already.

https://medium.com/@sydelbrown/why-would-someone-willingly-call-themselves-a-dink-6e67a5e13fab

After your anti-model post the other day, this one has been a proof in the pudding event for you.

It appears that MDT has not recorded any precip, outside T's today, meaning we are still very much locked in as the driest Sept ever. A chance of some rain tomorrow but outside that still something to watch. Progs promise to push us out of the record holder position with rain....wait for it...7-10 days away from now.

Today's totals only but not much last night for most. Pretty low key. Up to a staggering .08" here.

More sexual innuendos.

That's what she said. .04" so far. AM models are caving to the dryer solutions. 0Z EC vs. yesterday 12Z. Nearly 3" drops in some places.

The shaft on that map would be 8-14" for the LSV and Skooks. (10:1)

WGAL really downplaying rain chances. Had around .4" far West LSV and close to nothing East and North of Harrisburg. Removing the low and high outliers, this map seems to depict what a lot of the middle ground progs are showing right now as to general areas where it would rain harder or longer.

12Z GFS says rain is primarily done in PA until October. Several other non-American Progs are much wetter.

We are who we thought we were.

Short Pump smack down.

And how does the Eagles defense let a gimpy Cousins scorch them in that final drive? I felt my own legs hurting watching Cousins tip toe around out there.

Speaking of ugly....Barkley. Cannot believe he dropped that.

The icon and nam 12 are now both very wet for much of southern PA in the next 48 hours. It is like a soap opera of models.

I was replying to your second question re: why they could be doing worse, at least on ground truth, over time. But like Mitch said I always thought the scoring was primarily UL based and not on day-to-day weather on the ground.

Weather models perform their work with calculations based on current data and past/historical data. The current data is always flawed by weather stations that are not working correctly or missing data so there is one hole there. Secondly, if our environment is warming as many here believe, where does that leave the validity of historical data suggesting what happened before will happen again? Some argue that newer models use atmospheric physics but said physics are governed but history whether scientists want to admit it or not. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2021/12/warming-makes-weather-less-predictable

I had a gust of 37 but more sustained in the teens near 20.